Match Info

BULGARIA: PARVA LIGA - ROUND 12

Date: 1 October 2023, Sunday

Location: Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Referee: Mitrev V. (Bul)


	Arda Kardzhali		Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.25	10	Watch
	1.29	5	8.75
	1.28	5	10	Watch
	1.29	5.51	10.87
	1.28	5.5	10.25
	1.28	5.4	9.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.54)	5.28 ↑ (4.18)	9.91 ↑ (5.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arda Kardzhali
72.8%

Draw
17.8%

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

22.6%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.7%

22.1%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arda Kardzhali has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arda Kardzhali's performance.

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arda Kardzhali than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arda Kardzhali that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Arda Kardzhali - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Predictions

Users Predictions: Arda Kardzhali will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gospodinov A. (G) 11. Stoychev M. 3. Sako O. 18. Huseynov C. 20. Lozev D. 21. Tsonev R. 80. Kotev L. (C) 99. Ivanov S. 7. Toungara A. 33. Tilev I. 9. Borukov P.	22. Velichkov M. (G) 26. Ivanov M. (C) 4. Aleksandrov G. 15. Angelov G. 25. Stoyanov K. 8. Moran M. 28. Yankov N. 7. Stanev K. 24. Boukholda C. 77. Nikolov M. 9. Toshev M.
Substitutes
24. Dichevski I. (G) 8. Dyulgerov S. 17. Kokonov I. 6. Krachunov P. 32. Mitev H. 12. Prince 4. Stoev M. 19. Yordanov T. 77. Yurukov I.	70. Bakalov D. 19. Betegon J. 11. Budinov I. 14. Dimitrov I. 6. Dimov P. 10. Knezevic L. 1. Martinov A. (G) 38. Naydenov V.
Coaches
Tunchev A.	Stefanov M.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Parva liga (Championship Group: ) and 16 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arda won 3.

Arda in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Etar is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arda could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arda is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Arda to win the game is with odds 1.31.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Arda won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Arda won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arda Kardzhali
Bulgarian Parva Liga
28.09.23	Krumovgrad - Arda Kardzhali	1:3 ✺
23.09.23	Arda Kardzhali - Hebar Pazardzhik	3:1 ✺
15.09.23	Arda Kardzhali - Botev Vratsa	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
08.09.23	Arda Kardzhali - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
01.09.23	Pirin Blagoevgrad - Arda Kardzhali	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWWW
- Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Bulgarian Parva Liga
28.09.23	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Pirin Blagoevgrad	0:2 ✺
23.09.23	Levski Sofia - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1:0 ✺
17.09.23	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
08.09.23	Beroe Stara Zagora - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
02.09.23	Lokomotiv Sofia - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.07.23	Arda Kardzhali - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	3:1
Bulgarian Parva Liga
20.04.21	Arda Kardzhali - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	3:2
Bulgarian Cup
02.03.21	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Arda Kardzhali	0:1
Bulgarian Parva Liga
08.11.20	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Arda Kardzhali	0:0
07.03.20	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Arda Kardzhali	1:1
30.09.19	Arda Kardzhali - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2:1

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