Match Info

BULGARIA: PARVA LIGA - ROUND 9

Date: 17 September 2023, Sunday

Location: Ivajlo Stadion (Veliko Tarnovo)

Referee: Nenkov I. (Bul)


	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo		Lokomotiv Plovdiv

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.83	Watch
	4.33	3.4	1.8	Watch
	4.5	3.56	1.84
	3.6	3	2
	4.45	3.54	1.82
	4.3	3.45	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↑ (3.54)	3.41 ↑ (3.22)	1.85 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
21.7%

Draw
27.6%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

28.9%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

28.4%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lokomotiv Plovdiv's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiv Plovdiv than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Lokomotiv Plovdiv Predictions

Users Predictions: Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Velichkov M. (G) 2. Hristov V. 26. Ivanov M. (C) 15. Angelov G. 25. Stoyanov K. 8. Moran M. 29. Angelov Y. 7. Stanev K. 28. Yankov N. 38. Naydenov V. 9. Toshev M.	23. Horkas D. (G) 16. Peshov K. 12. Ali E. 91. Segura J. 2. Kamdem O. 6. Ivanov H. 7. Dione B. 21. Ewandro 14. Iliev D. (C) 10. Giovanny 9. Minchev G.
Substitutes
4. Aleksandrov G. 70. Bakalov D. 19. Betegon J. 24. Boukholda C. 14. Dimitrov I. 10. Knezevic L. 1. Martinov A. (G) 77. Nikolov M.	11. Andreev P. 17. Conteh A. 22. Ivanov I. 33. Karakashev G. 99. Leo Sena 44. Lyaskov A. 4. Paskalev M. 81. Tomov K. (G)
Coaches
Lukanov E.	Tomash A.

Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Parva liga (Championship Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Etar won 0.

Etar is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lokomotiv Plovdiv is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lokomotiv Plovdiv could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lokomotiv Plovdiv is a favorite.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Etar won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 11-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Etar won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Club Friendly
08.09.23	Beroe Stara Zagora - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
02.09.23	Lokomotiv Sofia - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1:3 ✺
27.08.23	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Botev Plovdiv	1:2 ✺
21.08.23	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1:0 ✺
14.08.23	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Beroe Stara Zagora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWLLT
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Club Friendly
08.09.23	Arda Kardzhali - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
03.09.23	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Krumovgrad	4:0 ✺
25.08.23	Hebar Pazardzhik - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	3:4 ✺
18.08.23	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Arda Kardzhali	1:0 ✺
11.08.23	Pirin Blagoevgrad - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.01.22	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	0:0
Bulgarian Parva Liga
26.02.21	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1:1
20.09.20	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1:3
05.06.20	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2:0
05.10.19	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:5
10.05.19	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1:0
07.05.19	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	0:2

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