Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 15 - Round 26

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday


	Ardoi		Cortes

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.2
	2.02	3.39	3.4
	1.10	6.57	25.00	Watch
	2.06	3.22	3.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.37)	4.1 ↑ (3.2)	8.72 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ardoi
60.7%

Draw
26.8%

Cortes
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.3%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

28.2%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ardoi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+22.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ardoi's performance.

Cortes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cortes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ardoi than the current prediction. (-22.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ardoi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cortes than the current prediction. (+20.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cortes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ardoi - Cortes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 2 - 0, ⚽,
70', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ardoi won 2.

Ardoi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cortes is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cortes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ardoi won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:9. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ardoi won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Cortes	5	1	1	3	2:8	-6	4

Last Results with these Odds

Ardoi - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.29%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Ardoi FE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
08.03.26	Oberena - Ardoi	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Ardoi - Izarra	2:2 ✺
20.02.26	Bidezarra - Ardoi	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Ardoi - Txantrea	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Pamplona - Ardoi	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTTTL
- CD Cortes
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
07.03.26	Cortes - Beti Kozkor	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Cortes - Egüés	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Huarte - Cortes	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Aoiz - Cortes	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Cortes - Oberena	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
01.11.25	Cortes - Ardoi	0:1
15.03.25	Ardoi - Cortes	1:1
03.11.24	Cortes - Ardoi	1:2
24.02.24	Ardoi - Cortes	1:1
07.10.23	Cortes - Ardoi	1:1
21.01.23	Ardoi - Cortes	1:0
24.09.22	Cortes - Ardoi	1:3

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