Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 26 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi)

Referee: Frid I. (Isr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovakia	Arena sport 1


	Aris		BATE Borisov

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	6	Watch
	1.6	3.9	5.5
	1.55	3.95	6.25
	1.61	3.8	5.5
	1.6	3.92	6.34
	1.53	3.5	5.5
	1.59	3.94	5.7
	1.63	3.8	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.88)	3.83 ↑ (3.3)	5.87 ↑ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aris
59.4%

Draw
24.6%

BATE Borisov
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

28.6%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

30.3%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aris's performance.

BATE Borisov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and BATE Borisov might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aris than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aris that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BATE Borisov than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.4%	4%	5.6%

Aris - BATE Borisov Predictions

Users Predictions: Aris will win (113 of 125 users predict this - 90.4%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.24% – 95.56%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vana (C) 20. Yago S. 31. Brorsson F. 5. Moucketou-Moussounda A. 3. Caju 23. Struski K. 22. Nikolic V. 21. Mayambela M. 14. Gomis Y. 7. Bengtsson L. 80. Babicka S.	35. Kudravets A. (G) 17. Nechaev D. 3. Khadarkevich R. 5. Bane S. 14. Jimoh S. 10. Gromyko V. 15. Bocherov V. (C) 18. Grechikho D. 44. Malkevich V. 90. Antilevski D. 80. Kontsevoy A.
Substitutes
78. Chrysostomou K. (G) 12. Dimitriou A. 19. Mamadou S. 66. Montnor J. 90. Sofroniou E. (G) 10. Spoljaric M. 11. Stepinski M. 37. Szoke J. 72. Urosevic S.	51. Dergachev V. (G) 50. Islamovic S. 99. Kovruk M. (G) 55. Laptev D. 4. Martynov A. 23. Podstrelov D. 13. Shestyuk A. 9. Vasilevich I. 24. Volkov S.
Coaches
Shpilevski A.	Alsheuski K.

Preview

1st leg.

Aris is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

BATE is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Aris could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Aris have a series of guest games.

In this match Aris is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aris Thessaloniki
Club Friendly
20.07.23	Aris - Ethnikos Achna	3:1 ✺
18.07.23	Austria Wien - Aris	1:1 ✺
16.07.23	Dynamo Kyiv - Aris	4:0 ✺
14.07.23	Sturm Graz - Aris	2:0 ✺
09.07.23	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Aris	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WTLLL
- BATE Borisov
UEFA Champions League
18.07.23	BATE Borisov - Partizani Tirana	2:0 ✺
11.07.23	Partizani Tirana - BATE Borisov	1:1 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
06.07.23	BATE Borisov - Shakhtyor Soligorsk	2:0 ✺
01.07.23	Neman Grodno - BATE Borisov	0:1 ✺
Belarusian Cup
28.06.23	Miory - BATE Borisov	0:13
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WTWWW

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