Match Info

Super League - Round 23

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium (Athens)

Referee: Bognar T. (Hun)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Belarus	Sport TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 6
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Serbia	Arena Premium 5


	Panathinaikos		Aris

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.25	5	Watch
	1.87	3.25	4.33
	1.76	3.35	5.2	Watch
	1.82	3.33	5.51
	1.78	3.22	5.21	Watch
	1.8	3.1	4.75
	1.82	3.23	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.69)	3.25 ↓ (3.33)	4.96 ↓ (5.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panathinaikos
52.1%

Draw
28.9%

Aris
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

27.9%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

25.5%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panathinaikos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Aris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panathinaikos than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

The ML Model estimate for Aris aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	33.3%	20%

Panathinaikos - Aris Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Panathinaikos will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Aris will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Panathinaikos: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Panathinaikos (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lafont A. (G) 21. Jedvaj T. 3. Katris G. 10. Andino S. 2. Calabria D. (C) 18. Kontouris S. 16. Gnezda Cerin A. 26. Hernandez J. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 23. Pantelidis P. 19. Swiderski K.	33. Athanasiadis G. (C) 27. Fadiga N. 4. Fabiano 20. Sonko Sundberg N. 37. Mendyl H. 10. Racic U. 78. Hongla M. 90. Garre B. 7. Perez C. 9. Kadewere T. 11. Donis A.
Substitutes
11. Bakasetas A. 31. Djuricic F. 88. Jagusic A. 70. Kotsaris K. (G) 72. Pantovic M. 28. Pellistri F. 8. Sanches R. 17. Sissoko M. 20. Taborda V. 7. Tetteh A. 5. Touba A. 9. Zaroury A.	19. Alfarela M. 49. Boussaid O. 13. Dioudis S. (G) 17. Frydek M. 70. Gianniotas G. 91. Karaj E. (G) 88. Kerkez M. 31. Kouame C. 77. Panagidis M. 92. Rose L. 15. Tejero A. 22. Voriazidis M.
Coaches
Benitez R.	Jimenez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Hernandez J. ⚽, Pantelidis P. (A),
24', Mendyl H. 🟨,
31', Pantelidis P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Donis A. ↓, Alfarela M. ↑,
46', Mendyl H. ↓, Tejero A. ↑,
56', Pantelidis P. ↓, Djuricic F. ↑,
57', Andino S. ↓, Taborda V. ↑,
61', Fadiga N. ↓, Frydek M. ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Taborda V. ⚽, Djuricic F. (A),
72', 2 - 1, Racic U. ⚽, Perez C. (A),
79', Tejero A. 🟨,
79', Swiderski K. ↓, Tetteh A. ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Tetteh A. ⚽,
83', Kadewere T. ↓, Kouame C. ↑,
84', Kontouris S. 🟨,
85', Alfarela M. 🟨,
88', Gnezda Cerin A. ↓, Bakasetas A. ↑,
89', Kontouris S. ↓, Sissoko M. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Conference League Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Conference League Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Panathinaikos won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Aris may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Panathinaikos is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Panathinaikos: Chirivella P. (Calf Injury) Dessers C. (Thigh Injury) Kotsiras G. (Injury) Kyriopoulos G. (Knee Injury) Palmer-Brown E. (Injury)

There will not play in Aris: Galanopoulos K. (Inactive) Misehouy G. (Inactive) Moron L. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Panathinaikos won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Panathinaikos won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:5. (average 1.3:0.5).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

Panathinaikos: 29.75% Aris: 0.64%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	5	5	0	0	12:2	10	15
7	Aris	5	2	1	2	5:10	-5	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Panathinaikos FC
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Viktoria Plzeň - Panathinaikos	1:2 penalties ✺
Greek Super League
22.02.26	OFI - Panathinaikos	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Panathinaikos - Viktoria Plzeň	2:2 ✺
Greek Super League
15.02.26	Panathinaikos - AEL Larissa	1:1 ✺
Greek Cup
11.02.26	PAOK - Panathinaikos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWTTL
- Aris Thessaloniki
Greek Super League
22.02.26	Aris - AE Kifisia	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Volos - Aris	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Aris - PAOK	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Panetolikos - Aris	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Aris - Levadiakos	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Greek Cup
14.01.26	Panathinaikos - Aris	3:0
Greek Super League
19.10.25	Aris - Panathinaikos	1:1
09.02.25	Aris - Panathinaikos	2:0
27.10.24	Panathinaikos - Aris	1:1
Greek Cup
25.05.24	Panathinaikos - Aris	1:0
Greek Super League
28.04.24	Panathinaikos - Aris	0:1
07.04.24	Aris - Panathinaikos	0:2

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