Match Info

Division 1 - Round 6

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Myszka M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Polonia, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Arka Gdynia		Polonia Bytom

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.30	3.60
	1.88	3.50	3.60
	1.82	3.45	3.60
	1.89	3.65	4.27
	1.8	3.8	4.07	Watch
	1.88	3.45	4.05
	1.93	3.48	3.79
	1.87	3.35	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.88)	3.5 ↓ (3.61)	3.81 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
49.5%

Draw
26.3%

Polonia Bytom
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

25.7%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

25.2%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Polonia Bytom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Bytom than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Arka Gdynia - Polonia Bytom Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Arndt D. (G) 20. Gruszkowski K. 3. Szota S. 4. Komenda M. 94. Gojny D. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 23. Lewkot S. 16. Solecki K. 77. Walus F. 39. Milewski M. 9. Gutkovskis V. (C)	1. Banasik W. (G) 77. Szymanski J. 30. Krzyzak O. 17. Wolkowicz K. 6. Wolski M. 25. Konieczny D. 8. Labojko M. 7. Zielinski L. 22. Orlik K. 9. Wojtyra K. (C) 11. Andrzejczak K.
Substitutes
72. Demirovic E. 44. Dominguez J. 17. Dziegielewski N. 33. Grobelny J. (G) 90. Krefft P. 14. Kun D. 6. Lipkowski K. 19. Pawlowski B. 98. Rama E.	13. Gajgier A. 21. Kadziolka S. 4. Malachowski A. 40. Mazur K. (G) 10. Michalski K. 19. Rumin D. 16. Stefanski P. 14. Szymusik G. 26. Wziech M.
Coaches
Jarolim M.	Gerega K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Wolkowicz K. 🟨,
24', Krzyzak O. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Milewski M. ⚽, Walus F. (A),
45', Labojko M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Wojtyra K. ↓, Rumin D. ↑,
46', Wolkowicz K. ↓, Szymusik G. ↑,
53', Solecki K. 🟨,
56', Solecki K. 🟥,
64', 1 - 1, Zielinski L. ⚽,
66', Wolski M. ↓, Kadziolka S. ↑,
66', Krzyzak O. ↓, Michalski K. ↑,
66', Michalski K. 🟨,
72', Ambrosiewicz M. ↓, Dominguez J. ↑,
72', Lewkot S. ↓, Kun D. ↑,
78', Walus F. ↓, Dziegielewski N. ↑,
78', Gutkovskis V. ↓, Rama E. ↑,
79', Orlik K. ↓, Wziech M. ↑,
90+2', Milewski M. ↓, Lipkowski K. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Arka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Arka is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Arka won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Arka Gdynia: 4.05% Polonia Bytom: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Arka Gdynia	9	3	2	4	11:11	0	11
15	Polonia Bytom	9	1	6	2	14:17	-3	9

Last Results with these Odds

Arka Gdynia - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.32%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Polish Division 1
23.08.26	Miedź Legnica - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
17.08.26	Arka Gdynia - Puszcza Niepołomice	3:0 ✺
10.08.26	Unia Skierniewice - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	Arka Gdynia - Stal Rzeszów	4:0 ✺
24.07.26	Odra Opole - Arka Gdynia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLWW
- Polonia Bytom
Polish Division 1
22.08.26	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
16.08.26	Stal Mielec - Polonia Bytom	5:2 ✺
07.08.26	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
31.07.26	ŁKS Łódź - Polonia Bytom	2:1 ✺
24.07.26	Polonia Bytom - Warta Poznań	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
08.11.23	Polonia Bytom - Arka Gdynia	1:3 ET
Polish Division 1
24.04.13	Arka Gdynia - Polonia Bytom	3:1

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