Match Info

Division 1 - Norra - Round 20

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Midgardsvallen (Märsta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	Ettan Play


	Arlanda		Umeå

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3.50	3.10
	1.8	3.7	3.65
	1.89	3.98	3.46	Watch
	1.74	3.95	3.8
	1.8	4.06	3.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.08)	3.84 ↑ (3.5)	3.55 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arlanda
50.2%

Draw
23.9%

Umeå
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

25.6%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

24.8%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arlanda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arlanda's performance.

Umeå has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Umeå might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arlanda than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arlanda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umeå than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Arlanda - Umeå Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Smedberg Lagh A. (G) 4. Ahmed M. 15. Antholm I. 10. Charbachi A. 6. Gorgos M. 27. Johansson E. 21. Kleist L. 2. Norberg C. 19. Rydz S. 24. Saeed A. 8. Yemane Y. (C)	1. Eriksson P. (G) 3. Andersson R. 16. Bawa Z. 26. Ekman D. (C) 33. Essombe Mambingo J. 17. Forsman S. 8. Godwin F. 9. Hadad R. 2. Linden N. 25. Njie M. 15. Wagnsson S.
Substitutes
5. Bergstedt O. 22. Butros M. 18. Carlsson J. 3. Fredricson H. 14. Hansen A. 30. Karo A. (G) 7. Rehman S.	20. Hassan H. 18. Hrastovina E. 23. Johansson I. 22. Lindgren T. 35. Pihlblad L. (G) 12. Yeboah E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Wagnsson S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Njie M. 🟨,
65', Charbachi A. ↓, Hansen A. ↑,
65', Saeed A. ↓, Butros M. ↑,
73', 0 - 2, Bawa Z. ⚽,
77', 1 - 2, Rydz S. ⚽, Yemane Y. (A),
78', Njie M. ↓, Hassan H. ↑,
78', Linden N. ↓, Johansson I. ↑,
81', Bawa Z. 🟨,
88', Gorgos M. 🟥,
88', 🟨,
89', Hansen A. 🟨,
90', Forsman S. ↓, Lindgren T. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 and 13 in the zone Division 1 ~ Relegation (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Arlanda has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Umeå is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arlanda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Arlanda might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arlanda won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arlanda	25	14	6	5	46:28	18	48
9	Umea FC	25	9	5	11	34:41	-7	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arlanda
Swedish Division 1 Norra
29.08.26	Stocksund - Arlanda	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Arlanda - FBK Karlstad	5:1 ✺
Svenska Cupen
20.08.26	Arlanda - Östersund	1:2 ✺
Swedish Division 1 Norra
16.08.26	Stockholm Internazionale - Arlanda	4:1 ✺
09.08.26	Arlanda - Piteå	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLT
- Umeå FC
Swedish Division 1 Norra
30.08.26	Umeå - Vasalund	3:2 ✺
23.08.26	Umeå - Enköping	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Gefle - Umeå	2:0 ✺
09.08.26	Umeå - AFC Eskilstuna	1:3 ✺
02.08.26	AFC Eskilstuna - Umeå	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Norra
12.04.26	Umeå - Arlanda	0:1

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