Match Info

Date: 5 January 2021, Tuesday


	Arouca		Académica Coimbra

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.8
	2.15	2.9	3.4
	2.15	2.95	3.4
	2.12	2.9	3.6
	2.24	3.04	3.88
	2.2	2.9	3.7
	2.14	3.05	3.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.15)	2.98 ↓ (3.04)	3.62 ↑ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
43.1%

Draw
31.2%

Académica Coimbra
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

30.5%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

20.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Arouca have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Académica Coimbra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arouca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Académica Coimbra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	31.2%	25%

Arouca - Académica Coimbra Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 14 - 43.8%). Académica will win (votes: 8 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 26.6% – 61%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Arouca will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Arouca won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Portuguese Liga 2
28.12.20	Vilafranquense - Arouca	2:0 ✺
20.12.20	Arouca - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
05.12.20	Oliveirense - Arouca	1:2 ✺
29.11.20	Arouca - Porto B	2:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.11.20	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWWLL
- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 2
27.12.20	Chaves - Académica Coimbra	2:1 ✺
20.12.20	Académica Coimbra - Casa Pia	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
11.12.20	Académico de Viseu - Académica Coimbra	3:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
06.12.20	Porto B - Académica Coimbra	1:2 ✺
29.11.20	Académica Coimbra - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
31.03.19	Arouca - Académica Coimbra	2:1
01.12.18	Académica Coimbra - Arouca	2:0
18.03.18	Arouca - Académica Coimbra	1:0
28.10.17	Académica Coimbra - Arouca	4:1
Portuguese League Cup
23.07.17	Académica Coimbra - Arouca	0:1 penalties
Liga Portugal
02.04.16	Arouca - Académica Coimbra	3:2
29.11.15	Académica Coimbra - Arouca	1:1

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