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Current Win Probability
Arouca 42%
Draw 28.3%
Nacional 29.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
39.3%
27.6%
33.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.7%
28.8%
34.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
41.7%
8.3%
Arouca - Nacional Predictions
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 21.7% – 78.3%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DC - Arouca (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 25. Kuipers B. 21. Fukui T. 22. van Ee E. 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 24. Vallier L. 8. Baeza M. 6. Matheus Dias 15. Labidi C. 27. Gabriel Veron 9. Ramirez J. (C) 11. Paulinho Boia
Substitutes
10. Gozalbez P. 24. Mansilla B. 6. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 20. Santiago Perez J. 2. Silva J. 1. Valido J. (G)
10. Daniel Junior 88. Deivison 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 99. Pablo Ruan 26. Silva J. 18. Sousa A. 7. Witi
Coaches
Seabra V.
Margarido T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
19', Labidi C. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Baeza M. ↓, Deivison ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Trezza A. ⚽, Lee H. (A),
51', Labidi C. 🟨,
57', Barbero I. 🟨,
62', van Ee E. 🟨,
64', Ze Vitor 🟨,
65', Djouahra N. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
65', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Lee H. ⚽,
71', Matheus Dias ↓, Silva J. ↑,
71', Ramirez J. ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
72', 3 - 0, Nandin D. ⚽, Gozalbez P. (A),
78', Gabriel Veron ↓, Witi ↑,
79', Lee H. 🟨,
79', Paulinho Boia ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
83', Lee H. 🟨,
85', van Ee E. ↓, Santiago Perez J. ↑,
85', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,
89', Trezza A. ↓, Puche ↑,
Preview
A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 12 and 14)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 3.
Arouca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Nacional is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
Pedro Santos
(Inactive)
There will not play in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Liziero
(Yellow Cards)
Lucas Franca
(Inactive)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
There are questionable in Nacional: Goncalves C.
(Injury)
Paulinho Boia
(Injury)
Vallier L.
(Inactive)
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.5:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).
Finland
Portugal
Ukraine
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De Arruabarrena I. (G) 
Tiago Esgaio (C) 
Sanchez J. 
Kuipers B. 
Fukui T. 
Lee H. 
Djouahra N. 
Kaique Pereira (G) 
Nunez A. 
Labidi C. 
Ramirez J. (C) 
Popovic B. 
Joao L. 
Witi 
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