Match Info

PORTUGAL: LEAGUE CUP - ROUND 4

Date: 10 December 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio Carlos Osorio (Oliveira de Azemeis)

Referee: Mota M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Oliveirense		Arouca

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.6	3.4	2
	3.75	3.5	1.92
	3.35	3.35	1.98
	4.04	3.53	1.94
	3.6	3.2	1.95
	3.8	3.5	1.92	Watch
	3.45	3.4	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (3.25)	3.41 ↑ (3.05)	1.96 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oliveirense
25.4%

Draw
27.2%

Arouca
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

29.8%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

29.6%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arouca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	26.7%	60%

Oliveirense - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Oliveirense will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Arouca will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oliveirense won 1.

Oliveirense is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Arouca is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arouca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arouca will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Oliveirense won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Oliveirense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese League Cup
29.11.22	Santa Clara - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
26.11.22	Oliveirense - Feirense	0:0 ✺
19.11.22	Leixões - Oliveirense	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
12.11.22	Estrela da Amadora - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
05.11.22	Oliveirense - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTLLT
- FC Arouca
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.22	Arouca - Leixões	1:1 ✺
18.11.22	Arouca - Feirense	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
12.11.22	Arouca - Rio Ave	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
08.11.22	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.11.22	Vizela - Arouca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
11.04.21	Arouca - Oliveirense	3:0
05.12.20	Oliveirense - Arouca	1:2
19.05.19	Oliveirense - Arouca	2:1
13.01.19	Arouca - Oliveirense	0:0
Club Friendly
14.07.18	Arouca - Oliveirense	3:1
Portuguese Liga 2
12.05.18	Oliveirense - Arouca	3:1
07.01.18	Arouca - Oliveirense	3:0

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