Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 28

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play


	Arsenal Sarandí		Güemes

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.4	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.9
	2.28	2.92	3.2	Watch
	2.31	3.09	3.48
	2.81	2.11	4.18	Watch
	2.62	2.75	2.9
	2.38	2.91	3.14
	2.72	3.1	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.7)	2.84 ↓ (3.1)	3.22 ↑ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
37.8%

Draw
33.1%

Güemes
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

29.8%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

30.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Güemes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Güemes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Güemes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Arsenal Sarandí - Güemes Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Purita E. 2. Roselli N. 6. Cocca M. 3. Serrano V. 8. Lucero M. 5. Colletta T. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Batista A. 7. Gonzalez T. 9. Sabatini I.	1. Pezzini N. (G) 4. Juarez W. 2. Monserrat N. 6. Gonzalez F. 3. Lopez F. 15. Juarez N. 5. Griffa E. 18. Veliz D. 11. Alvarez M. 7. Sala S. G. 9. Albertengo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Palacios P. ⚽,
35', Juarez N. 🟨,
38', Roselli N. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Sabatini I. ⚽, Gonzalez T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Albertengo M. ↓, Gerez M. ↑,
67', Veliz D. ↓, Arevalo T. ↑,
68', Sala S. G. ↓, Alvarez M. ↑,
69', Colletta T. ↓, Sayago D. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Sayago D. ⚽, Purita E. (A),
83', Juarez N. ↓, Oyola A. I. ↑,
83', Lopez F. ↓, Lesman G. ↑,
83', Batista A. ↓, Payes A. ↑,
90+2', Lesman G. 🟨,
90+2', Purita E. ↓, Amaya A. ↑,
90+2', Fernandez E. ↓, Vila J. ↑,
90+2', Lucero M. ↓, Bordagaray F. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 16).

Arsenal Sarandí has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Güemes has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Arsenal Sarandí won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal Sarandí - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.23%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.08.25	Patronato Parana - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Club Almagro - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
27.07.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Miguel	5:2 ✺
19.07.25	Quilmes - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLWL
- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.08.25	Güemes - All Boys	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Alvarado - Güemes	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Güemes - Deportivo Madryn	1:3 ✺
27.07.25	Deportivo Maipú - Güemes	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Güemes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.25	Güemes - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0
23.06.24	Güemes - Arsenal Sarandí	0:1
04.02.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Güemes	1:1

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