Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 24

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Deportivo Maipú		Güemes

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.75	3.75	Watch
	2.2	2.8	3.5
	2.25	2.72	3.55	Watch
	2.36	2.81	3.87
	2.41	2.61	3.70	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.7
	2.31	2.65	3.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.85)	2.73 ↓ (3)	3.68 ↓ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maipú
40.6%

Draw
34%

Güemes
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

30.4%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

32%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maipú has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Maipú's form might have worsened.

Güemes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Güemes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maipú than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Maipú, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Güemes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Deportivo Maipú - Güemes Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Deportivo Maipú will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pietrobono I. (G) 2. Arnijas L. 3. de la Reta J. 4. Paredes L. 5. Mansilla G. 6. Aguero Gimenez A. R. 7. Saccone F. (C) 8. Bonfigli M. 9. Bonacci P. 10. Eggel M. 11. Ozuna E.	1. Acosta M. (G) 4. Juarez W. 2. Monserrat N. 6. Gonzalez F. 3. Kruger J. 8. Gerez M. 5. Griffa E. 10. Oyola A. I. 7. Chiozza L. 9. Palacios P. 11. Albertengo M.
Substitutes
16. Bustinduy A. 15. Campagnaro M. 13. Faggioli L. 12. Galardi N. (G) 14. Sambueza R. 18. Sandoval I. 17. Silva T. 20. Vallejo L. 19. Yavante Gaitan D.	19. Alvarez M. 14. Bettini M. 17. Federico T. 16. Juarez N. 12. Leguiza M. (G) 20. Lesman G. 13. Machuca B. 18. Sala S. G. 15. Veliz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Ozuna E. ⚽,
38', Eggel M. 🟨,
42', Ozuna E. 🟨,
44', Saccone F. 🟨,
45', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Chiozza L. ↓, Veliz D. ↑,
46', Gerez M. ↓, Sala S. G. ↑,
54', Saccone F. ↓, Silva T. ↑,
56', Albertengo M. ↓, Lesman G. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Palacios P. ⚽,
61', Oyola A. I. ↓, Federico T. ↑,
71', Ozuna E. ↓, Sambueza R. ↑,
74', de la Reta J. 🟨,
85', Bonfigli M. ↓, Sandoval I. ↑,
90', Palacios P. ↓, Juarez N. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 16).

Deportivo Maipú has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Güemes is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Deportivo Maipú may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Deportivo Maipú could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Maipú won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).

Including home match between the teams, Deportivo Maipú won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maipú
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.07.25	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Maipú	1:0 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo Maipú - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Club Almagro - Deportivo Maipú	0:1 ✺
29.06.25	Deportivo Maipú - San Miguel	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	Quilmes - Deportivo Maipú	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWLT
- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.07.25	Güemes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:1 ✺
12.07.25	Tristán Suárez - Güemes	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Güemes - San Martín de Tucumán	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Güemes - Los Andes	2:1 ✺
22.06.25	Patronato Parana - Güemes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.03.25	Güemes - Deportivo Maipú	1:1
07.09.24	Güemes - Deportivo Maipú	4:0
22.04.24	Deportivo Maipú - Güemes	1:1
03.07.22	Güemes - Deportivo Maipú	2:1

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