Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 26

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Arsenal Sarandí		Ferro Carril Oeste

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.65	2.8	2.75
	2.62	2.78	2.88	Watch
	2.73	2.87	3
	2.79	2.84	2.83	Watch
	2.62	2.7	2.9
	2.63	2.9	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.65)	2.83 ↑ (2.73)	2.88 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
34.8%

Draw
32.9%

Ferro Carril Oeste
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

34.4%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

34.4%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Ferro Carril Oeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	87.5%	12.5%

Arsenal Sarandí - Ferro Carril Oeste Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ferro Carril will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Purita E. 2. Roselli N. 6. Cocca M. 3. Serrano V. 8. Lucero M. 5. Trombini M. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Batista A. 7. Gonzalez T. 9. Sabatini I.	1. Monetti F. (G) 4. Vallejos M. 2. Rivero F. 6. Lorenzo A. 3. Ayala R. 8. Flores S. 5. Cosi J. 11. Garcia F. 7. Parisi L. 9. Benegas M. 10. Palacio P.
Substitutes
13. Amaya A. 18. Bordagaray F. 15. Colletta T. 16. Duarte L. 17. Juarez A. 19. Klusener G. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 14. Mihovilcevich L. 20. Sayago D.	13. Boolsen P. 18. Campos M. 19. Diellos D. 12. Ferrario R. (G) 14. Meritello F. 15. Monserrat M. 20. Montiel N. 17. Quiroga S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Pourtau J. 🟨,
16', Cosi J. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Benegas M. (Own goal),
36', Ayala R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Garcia F. ↓, Montiel N. ↑,
46', Parisi L. ↓, Campos M. ↑,
47', Rivero F. 🟨,
54', Purita E. 🟨,
59', 2 - 0, Fernandez E. ⚽,
67', Flores S. ↓, Obradovich F. ↑,
67', Palacio P. ↓, Quiroga S. ↑,
73', Benegas M. ↓, Diellos D. ↑,
76', Purita E. ↓, Mihovilcevich L. ↑,
76', Gonzalez T. ↓, Sayago D. ↑,
76', Lucero M. ↓, Colletta T. ↑,
82', Fernandez E. ↓, Bordagaray F. ↑,
83', Obradovich F. 🟨,
86', Batista A. ↓, Juarez A. ↑,
89', Sabatini I. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Recent performances by Arsenal Sarandí have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ferro Carril's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Arsenal Sarandí may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal Sarandí - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.46%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.08.25	Club Almagro - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
27.07.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Miguel	5:2 ✺
19.07.25	Quilmes - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
13.07.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Racing de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Arsenal Sarandí	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLWL
- Ferro Carril Oeste
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.08.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - All Boys	0:0 ✺
27.07.25	Alvarado - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:0 ✺
19.07.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo Maipú - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
07.04.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0
14.07.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:0
24.02.24	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1
02.12.18	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1

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