Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 28

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Güemes		Gimnasia y Tiro

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.7	2.75	Watch
	2.40	2.80	3.00
	2.65	2.75	2.75	Watch
	2.7	2.96	3.03
	2.67	2.93	2.87	Watch
	2.6	2.9	2.85
	2.54	2.84	2.74	Watch
	2.65	2.8	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (3.64)	2.84 ↓ (2.92)	2.84 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Güemes
35.2%

Draw
32.4%

Gimnasia y Tiro
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

32%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

30.9%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Güemes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Güemes's performance.

Gimnasia y Tiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gimnasia y Tiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Güemes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Tiro than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gimnasia y Tiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Güemes - Gimnasia y Tiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Bordon A. 2. Juarez W. 3. Benitez M. 6. Melillan F. 8. Pinto A. 5. Godoy F. 11. Guinazu L. 7. Sala S. G. 9. Sanchez J. 10. Pugliese G.	1. Cosentino F. (G) 4. Galetto J. 2. Soto G. 6. Diaz G. 3. Montoya L. 7. Aguirre J. 5. Sivetti F. 8. Banega T. 11. Rocca J. 9. Gordillo L. 10. Rojas F.
Substitutes
20. Gerez B. 18. Gerez M. 13. Gonzalez A. (G) 19. Leineker C. 14. Martinez M. 16. Ortigoza I. 12. Palleres T. (G) 15. Rizzi F. 17. Veliz D.	15. Birge M. 17. Capano J. 20. Contin N. 18. Montoya W. 12. Nogales S. 13. Oviedo J. C. 19. Rinaldi N. 14. Tallura A. 16. Villarreal R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
23', 0 - 1, Gordillo L. ⚽, Aguirre J. (A),
32', Godoy F. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
44', 0 - 2, Sivetti F. ⚽, Gordillo L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Juarez W. ↓, Gerez B. ↑,
59', Pinto A. ↓, Ortigoza I. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Sanchez J. (Penalty Awarded),
70', Banega T. ↓, Birge M. ↑,
70', Rocca J. ↓, Rinaldi N. ↑,
70', Pugliese G. ↓, Veliz D. ↑,
81', Montoya L. ↓, Tallura A. ↑,
86', Rojas F. ↓, Montoya W. ↑,
86', Galetto J. ↓, Oviedo J. C. ↑,
86', Montoya W. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 3, Montoya W. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Recent performances by Güemes have been up and down (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gimnasia y Tiro is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gimnasia y Tiro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Güemes has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Güemes won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Güemes won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Güemes - the odds 3.64 are the expected chance of winning is 25.68%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Gimnasia y Tiro - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.3%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.08.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Güemes	1:1 ✺
24.08.26	Güemes - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
19.08.26	Chacarita Juniors - Güemes	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Mitre - Güemes	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Agropecuario Argentino - Güemes	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 TTTTL
- Gimnasia y Tiro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
28.08.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	San Martín de San Juan - Gimnasia y Tiro	3:1 ✺
16.08.26	Central Norte - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0 ✺
09.08.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Nueva Chicago	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Club Almagro - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:1
20.07.25	Güemes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:1
16.03.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:0

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