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Current Win Probability
Arsenal Tivat 16.8%
Draw 26.1%
Mornar Bar 57.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
22%
28.7%
49.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.5%
28.1%
50.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arsenal Tivat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arsenal Tivat's form might have worsened.
Mornar Bar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mornar Bar's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tivat than the current prediction. (+4.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mornar Bar than the current prediction. (-6.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mornar Bar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Arsenal Tivat - Mornar Bar Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Zogovic B. (C) 88. Abdullahi A. 16. Kascelan V. 15. Malisic P. 77. Mandic S. 5. Petovic G. 8. Sahman I. 23. Sesay S. 29. Vujacic K. 9. Vukcevic I. 26. Zivanovic M.
24. Krijestarac B. (G) 17. Dasic J. 8. Djurisic M. 32. Ljutica V. (C) 6. Martinovic I. 16. Mitrovic F. 10. Skrijelj D. 9. Soussi A. 33. Stijepovic N. 97. Vukcevic P. 11. Yao Y.
Substitutes
12. Bozinovic I. (G) 19. Djukanovic M. 24. Erakovic N. 7. Golub A. 6. Kascelan V. 27. Kralj A. 99. Labovic S. 98. Petrovic A. 14. Rozin R.
5. Dakic D. 7. Denkovic S. 22. Djuretic L. 23. Dubljevic B. 1. Dubljevic R. (G) 20. Medojevic N. 25. Milosevic B. 21. Rovcanin M. 13. Stojanovic V. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Vukcevic P. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Vukcevic I. (Penalty Awarded),
24', Zivanovic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Djurisic M. ↓, Denkovic S. ↑,
46', Stijepovic N. ↓, Dubljevic B. ↑,
49', Mitrovic F. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Yao Y. ⚽,
63', 1 - 2, Ljutica V. ⚽,
67', Sesay S. ↓, Djukanovic M. ↑,
67', Vujacic K. ↓, Golub A. ↑,
78', Malisic P. ↓, Kascelan V. ↑,
81', Vukcevic P. ↓, Rovcanin M. ↑,
85', Mandic S. 🟨,
88', Skrijelj D. ↓, Medojevic N. ↑,
Preview
A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 10th in the Relegation - Druga Liga and 6th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal Tivat won 1.
Arsenal Tivat is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Mornar Bar has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Mornar Bar may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Bookmakers give the edge to Mornar Bar for this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal Tivat has recorded 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:24 (averaging 1:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Arsenal Tivat against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 12:13 goals (averaging 1.2:1.3 per game).
Watch
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Zogovic B. (C) 
Abdullahi A. 
Sesay S. 
Zivanovic M. 
Soussi A. 
Yao Y. 
Rozin R. 
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