Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 14

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday


	Morpeth Town		Workington

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.4	2.88
	2.37	3.52	2.63
	2.27	3.49	2.85	Watch
	2.24	3.4	2.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.27)	3.45 ↓ (3.49)	2.79 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morpeth Town
40.7%

Draw
26.5%

Workington
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.6%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

25.4%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morpeth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Workington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Workington than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Morpeth Town - Workington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Bollado N. ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, Myers D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Morpeth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Morpeth won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Morpeth Town - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.87%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
14.10.25	Morpeth Town - Cleethorpes Town	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Warrington Rylands - Morpeth Town	4:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
07.10.25	Runcorn Linnets - Morpeth Town	1:2 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
27.09.25	Morpeth Town - Southport	1:3 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL
- Workington
English FA Trophy
07.10.25	Workington - United of Manchester	0:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
27.09.25	Ilkeston - Workington	3:2 ✺
20.09.25	Workington - Prescot Cables	1:1 ✺
16.09.25	Hebburn Town - Workington	2:1 ✺
09.09.25	Workington - United of Manchester	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
21.04.25	Morpeth Town - Workington	1:0
26.12.24	Workington - Morpeth Town	2:2
English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Workington - Morpeth Town	3:1
English NPL Premier Division
09.12.23	Workington - Morpeth Town	2:2
15.08.23	Morpeth Town - Workington	3:0

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