Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 13

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Leek Town		Ashton United

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.50	2.60
	2.22	3.40	2.62
	2.20	3.67	2.74
	2.26	3.74	2.79	Watch
	2.17	3.60	2.70
	2.23	3.44	2.71
	2.27	3.55	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.45)	3.56 ↑ (3.5)	2.69 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leek Town
40.8%

Draw
25.5%

Ashton United
33.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.1%

26%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

25.1%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leek Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leek Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Leek Town - Ashton United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Okome N. ⚽,
31', 0 - 2, Knight S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', 1 - 2, Griffiths J. ⚽,
90', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 17th and 14th).

Leek is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ashton is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Leek has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:2 (averaging 1.5:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Leek against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 5:1 goals (averaging 2.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17:18	-1	14
18	Leek	14	3	5	6	29:31	-2	14

Last Results with these Odds

Leek Town - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.06%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Ashton United - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 36.96%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
06.10.26	Leek Town - Warrington Rylands	3:3 ✺
22.09.26	Leek Town - Hyde United	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Redcar Athletic - Leek Town	3:2 ✺
01.09.26	Leek Town - Warrington Town	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Workington - Leek Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWLLL
- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
06.10.26	Quorn - Ashton United	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Buxton - Ashton United	1:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Ashton United - Cleethorpes Town	0:1 ✺
31.08.26	Curzon Ashton - Ashton United	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
07.03.26	Ashton United - Leek Town	0:1
11.11.25	Leek Town - Ashton United	2:0
22.03.25	Leek Town - Ashton United	3:1
16.11.24	Ashton United - Leek Town	1:0

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