Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 40

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Ashton United		Workington

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.2	2.62
	2.29	3.62	2.64
	2.4	3.53	2.7	Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.5
	2.35	3.15	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (1.97)	3.35 ↓ (3.52)	2.63 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ashton United
38.6%

Draw
27%

Workington
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

26.3%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

26.1%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ashton United's form might have worsened.

Workington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Workington's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ashton United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Workington than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Workington, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ashton United - Workington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 1 - 0, Byrne A. ⚽,
54', 2 - 0, Osei D. ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, Tymon M. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 1.

Ashton has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Workington is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Workington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:27. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ashton won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Workington	12	6	3	3	23:19	4	21
14	Ashton Utd	10	3	3	4	12:11	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Ashton United - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 47.08%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Workington - the odds 3.49 are the expected chance of winning is 26.57%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
06.04.26	Hyde United - Ashton United	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Ashton United - Rushall Olympic	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Ashton United	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Ashton United - Ilkeston	0:0 ✺
17.03.26	Whitby Town - Ashton United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLTW
- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
06.04.26	Workington - Cleethorpes Town	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Warrington Rylands - Workington	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Workington - Hednesford Town	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	Hyde United - Workington	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Workington - Stocksbridge Park Steels	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
23.08.25	Workington - Ashton United	1:1
26.04.25	Workington - Ashton United	5:1
24.08.24	Ashton United - Workington	3:0
16.12.23	Ashton United - Workington	2:2
12.08.23	Workington - Ashton United	5:0
28.04.18	Workington - Ashton United	1:2
26.09.17	Ashton United - Workington	0:1

Upcoming Matches