Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 37

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Workington		Hednesford Town

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.15	2.02
	3.41	3.11	2.13
	3.37	3.41	2.09	Watch
	3.25	3	2.05
	3.33	3.24	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↓ (3.38)	3.18 ↓ (3.67)	2.06 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Workington
27.4%

Draw
28.6%

Hednesford Town
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

25.4%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

25.8%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Workington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Hednesford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Workington than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Workington - Hednesford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Allan J. ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 0, Swinglehurst S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
85', 3 - 0, Leslie K. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Workington won 2.

Workington has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Hednesford is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hednesford is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Workington won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Workington won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Outrights of English NPL Premier Division for now

Workington: 1.98%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Workington	12	6	3	3	23:19	4	21

Last Results with these Odds

Workington - the odds 3.38 are the expected chance of winning is 27.63%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
21.03.26	Hyde United - Workington	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Workington - Stocksbridge Park Steels	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Guiseley - Workington	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Workington - Rushall Olympic	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Workington - Morpeth Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 WWTWW
- Hednesford Town
English NPL Premier Division
21.03.26	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Hednesford Town	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Hednesford Town - Guiseley	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Bamber Bridge - Hednesford Town	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	Hednesford Town - Lancaster City	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Hyde United - Hednesford Town	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
16.08.25	Hednesford Town - Workington	2:0
01.12.18	Workington - Hednesford Town	4:2
15.09.18	Hednesford Town - Workington	2:0
14.10.17	Hednesford Town - Workington	1:1
16.09.17	Workington - Hednesford Town	1:0
11.03.17	Hednesford Town - Workington	0:2
03.12.16	Workington - Hednesford Town	0:2

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