Match Info

Super League - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium (Tripoli)

Referee: Fotias V. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	SportPlus
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Usa	SportPlus


	Asteras Tripolis		AEL Larissa

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.28	3.05	3.4
	2.17	3.27	3.67
	2.11	3.31	3.47	Watch
	2.2	2.8	3.4
	2.26	2.97	3.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.29)	3.1 ↓ (3.23)	3.49 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Asteras Tripolis
42.8%

Draw
30.3%

AEL Larissa
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.7%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

27.5%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Asteras Tripolis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

AEL Larissa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Asteras Tripolis than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEL Larissa than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Asteras Tripolis will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Larissa will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Asteras Tripolis: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Asteras Tripolis (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Larissa (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Larissa (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Asteras Tripolis (votes: 1 - 25%). Larissa (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Papadopoulos N. (C) 3. Sipcic N. 13. Triantafyllopoulos K. 69. Alagbe O. 64. Deligiannidis P. 10. Gonzalez E. 68. Almyras C. 4. Sylla I. 7. Bartolo J. 40. Ketu K. 41. Macheda F.	21. Venetikidis T. (G) 14. Ferigra E. 33. Rosic L. 4. Iliadis T. 27. Macon Y. 15. Naor G. 90. Sourlis V. 20. Olafsson D. 5. Kakuta G. 29. Tupta L. 25. Sagal A. (C)
Substitutes
17. Alho N. 61. Chatziemmanouil V. (G) 26. Chidera O. M. 11. Emmanouilidis D. 20. Kaltsas N. 74. Laskaris D. 75. Mitrovic S. 22. Munoz Mumo 29. Pomonis K. 96. Simoni A. 8. Tzandaris T. 5. Yablonskiy E.	94. Anagnostopoulos A. (G) 2. Apostolakis K. 18. Chatzistravos Z. 23. Garate L. 3. Grozos K. 11. Mourgos S. 7. Ngoy J. 19. Pasas G. 8. Perez F.
Coaches
Antonopoulos G.	Pantelidis S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Bartolo J. ⚽, Ketu K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ferigra E. ↓, Pasas G. ↑,
59', 2 - 0, Macheda F. ⚽,
63', Deligiannidis P. 🟨,
64', Kakuta G. ↓, Mourgos S. ↑,
64', Sourlis V. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
75', Macheda F. ↓, Kaltsas N. ↑,
76', Bartolo J. ↓, Chidera O. M. ↑,
78', Tupta L. ↓, Chatzistravos Z. ↑,
78', Naor G. ↓, Garate L. ↑,
79', Sagal A. 🟨,
87', Ketu K. ↓, Tzandaris T. ↑,
88', Iliadis T. 🟨,
90', 3 - 0, Chidera O. M. ⚽,
90+1', Gonzalez E. ↓, Pomonis K. ↑,
90+1', Sylla I. ↓, Emmanouilidis D. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Garate L. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Asteras Tripolis won 3.

Asteras Tripolis has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Larissa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Asteras Tripolis: Chicco J. (Injury) Gioacchini N. (Inactive) Mendieta J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Larissa: Pantelakis E. (Injury) Staikos P. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Asteras Tripolis won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 35:21. (average 2.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Asteras Tripolis won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

Asteras Tripolis: 0.64%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Asteras Tripolis	6	1	2	3	6:10	-4	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Asteras Tripolis
Greek Super League
22.03.26	Asteras Tripolis - Panathinaikos	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	AEL Larissa - Asteras Tripolis	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Asteras Tripolis - Panserraikos	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	PAOK - Asteras Tripolis	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Asteras Tripolis - Atromitos Athens	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL
- AEL Larissa
Greek Super League
22.03.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEL Larissa	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	AEL Larissa - Asteras Tripolis	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	AEK Athens - AEL Larissa	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	OFI - AEL Larissa	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	AEL Larissa - PAOK	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
14.03.26	AEL Larissa - Asteras Tripolis	1:1
14.09.25	Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa	2:2
23.01.21	Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa	1:0
18.10.20	AEL Larissa - Asteras Tripolis	1:3
07.06.20	AEL Larissa - Asteras Tripolis	1:2
01.03.20	AEL Larissa - Asteras Tripolis	3:0
08.12.19	Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa	1:1

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