What is the expert prediction for Atalanta vs Lecce?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Atalanta vs Lecce. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Atalanta vs Lecce Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, September 14, 2025)

Match Info

Serie A - Round 3

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo)

Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	Migu
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 1
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	ESPN 4 South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+


	Atalanta		Lecce

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	8.5	Watch
	1.42	4.5	7.75
	1.39	4.7	8.8	Watch
	1.43	5.07	7.8
	1.51	4.11	6.39	Watch
	1.44	4.33	7
	1.42	4.55	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.42)	4.54 ↓ (4.79)	7.83 ↑ (7.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
66.8%

Draw
21%

Lecce
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.6%

20%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

17.6%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atalanta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.7%	20.8%	7.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 38 - 71.7%). Lecce will win (votes: 4 - 7.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 59.6% – 83.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 27 high ROI users predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 19 - 70.4%). Tie (votes: 8 - 29.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -1.5 - Atalanta (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Atalanta (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Atalanta (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Lecce (3.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 31 high ROI users predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 22 - 71%). Lecce (votes: 1 - 3.2%). Tie (votes: 8 - 25.8%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 4. Hien I. 3. Kossounou O. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 8. Pasalic M. 59. Zalewski N. 17. De Ketelaere C. 7. Sulemana K. 90. Krstovic N.	30. Falcone W. (C) 21. Kouassi C. 4. Gaspar K. 5. Siebert J. 25. Gallo A. 29. Coulibaly L. 20. Ramadani Y. 6. Sala A. 7. Tete Morente 9. Stulic N. 23. Sottil R.
Substitutes
69. Ahanor H. 47. Bernasconi L. 44. Brescianini M. 41. Camara H. 19. Djimsiti B. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 40. Obric R. 31. Rossi F. (G) 10. Samardzic L. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 77. Zappacosta D.	19. Banda L. 10. Berisha M. 22. Camarda F. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 14. Helgason T. J. 80. Kovac N. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 50. Pierotti S. 32. Samooja J. (G) 44. Tiago Gabriel 17. Veiga D.
Coaches
Juric I.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Scalvini G. ⚽, Zalewski N. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
51', 2 - 0, De Ketelaere C. ⚽, Krstovic N. (A),
59', Pasalic M. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
59', Sottil R. ↓, Pierotti S. ↑,
60', Sala A. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
70', 3 - 0, Zalewski N. ⚽, Krstovic N. (A),
71', Stulic N. ↓, Camarda F. ↑,
71', Kouassi C. ↓, Veiga D. ↑,
73', 4 - 0, De Ketelaere C. ⚽,
75', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
75', Sulemana K. ↓, Maldini D. ↑,
76', De Roon M. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
79', Siebert J. ↓, Tiago Gabriel ↑,
82', 4 - 1, Ndri K. ⚽, Veiga D. (A),
86', Zalewski N. ↓, Bernasconi L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 3.

Recent form of Atalanta has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lecce has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Atalanta is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Ederson (Knee Injury) Kolasinac S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lecce: Jean G. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atalanta: Lookman A. (Inactive) Scamacca G. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Kaba M. (Inactive) Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:8. (average 2.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

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Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 1.42 are the expected chance of winning is 67.57%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
30.08.25	Parma - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Atalanta - Pisa	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Atalanta - Juventus	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Atalanta - Opatija	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Köln - Atalanta	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TTLTL
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
29.08.25	Lecce - Milan	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Genoa - Lecce	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.25	Lecce - Juve Stabia	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Monopoli - Lecce	2:2 ✺
03.08.25	Lecce - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
27.04.25	Atalanta - Lecce	1:1
19.08.24	Lecce - Atalanta	0:4
18.05.24	Lecce - Atalanta	0:2
30.12.23	Atalanta - Lecce	1:0
19.02.23	Atalanta - Lecce	1:2
09.11.22	Lecce - Atalanta	2:1
01.03.20	Lecce - Atalanta	2:7

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