Match Info

Serie A - Round 31

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lecce		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.8	1.65	Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.75
	5.4	3.7	1.68	Watch
	5.75	3.85	1.69
	5.53	3.84	1.65	Watch
	5	3.5	1.65
	5.9	3.87	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.38 ↑ (4.65)	3.74 ↓ (3.77)	1.68 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
17.7%

Draw
25.5%

Atalanta
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.4%

25.2%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.4%

26.5%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	11.9%	73.8%

Lecce - Atalanta Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 6 - 14.3%). Atalanta will win (votes: 31 - 73.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 60.5% – 87.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lecce (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 1 - 20%). Atalanta (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 3. Ndaba C. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 8. Fofana S. 19. Banda L. 99. Cheddira W.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 77. Zappacosta D. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 47. Bernasconi L. 17. De Ketelaere C. 59. Zalewski N. 90. Krstovic N.
Substitutes
29. Coulibaly L. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 16. Gandelman O. 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 36. Marchwinski F. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 9. Stulic N.	69. Ahanor H. 5. Bakker M. 16. Bellanova R. 3. Kossounou O. 6. Musah Y. 49. Navarro A. 50. Pardel P. (G) 8. Pasalic M. 18. Raspadori G. 10. Samardzic L. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Scalvini G. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Fofana S. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
47', Djimsiti B. 🟨,
59', 0 - 2, Krstovic N. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
63', Zalewski N. ↓, Raspadori G. ↑,
63', De Roon M. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
67', Veiga D. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
68', Ramadani Y. ↓, Coulibaly L. ↑,
70', Zappacosta D. 🟨,
70', Zappacosta D. ↓, Bellanova R. ↑,
70', Djimsiti B. ↓, Kossounou O. ↑,
73', 0 - 3, Raspadori G. ⚽, Pasalic M. (A),
78', Cheddira W. ↓, Stulic N. ↑,
80', Krstovic N. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 0.

Lecce is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Atalanta has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Atalanta is the team to beat.

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Thigh Injury) Camarda F. (Shoulder Injury) Gaspar K. (Knee Injury) Sottil R. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Atalanta: Hien I. (Thigh Injury) Scamacca G. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Banda L. (Thigh Injury) Coulibaly L. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:24. (average 0.9:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:14. (average 1:3.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Atalanta: 0.79% Lecce: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5:7	-2	6
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
22.03.26	Roma - Lecce	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Napoli - Lecce	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lecce - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Como - Lecce	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Lecce - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLWLL
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
22.03.26	Atalanta - Verona	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Bayern Munich - Atalanta	4:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.03.26	Inter Milan - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.03.26	Atalanta - Bayern Munich	1:6 ✺
Italian Serie A
07.03.26	Atalanta - Udinese	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Atalanta - Lecce	4:1
27.04.25	Atalanta - Lecce	1:1
19.08.24	Lecce - Atalanta	0:4
18.05.24	Lecce - Atalanta	0:2
30.12.23	Atalanta - Lecce	1:0
19.02.23	Atalanta - Lecce	1:2
09.11.22	Lecce - Atalanta	2:1

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