Match Info

Serie A - Round 32

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Bologna		Lecce

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.82	3.35	4.95	Watch
	1.84	3.36	5.27
	1.8	3.39	5.07	Watch
	1.8	3.2	4.8
	1.9	3.45	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.66)	3.34 ↓ (3.65)	4.97 ↓ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
52.2%

Draw
28.6%

Lecce
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

25.9%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

25.3%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bologna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	21.1%	5.3%

Bologna - Lecce Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bologna will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Lecce will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bologna: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Pessina M. (G) 17. Joao Mario 16. Casale N. 26. Lucumi J. 33. Miranda J. 8. Freuler R. (C) 6. Moro N. 7. Orsolini R. 23. Sohm S. 28. Cambiaghi N. 9. Castro S.	30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 44. Tiago Gabriel 5. Siebert J. 3. Ndaba C. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 29. Coulibaly L. 19. Banda L. 9. Stulic N.
Substitutes
10. Bernardeschi F. 73. Castaldo F. 29. De Silvestri L. 82. Franceschelli M. (G) 14. Heggem T. 21. Odgaard J. 4. Pobega T. 13. Ravaglia F. (G) 11. Rowe J. 41. Vitik M. 20. Zortea N.	99. Cheddira W. 8. Fofana S. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 25. Gallo A. 16. Gandelman O. 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 80. Kovac N. 36. Marchwinski F. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G)
Coaches
Italiano V.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Freuler R. ⚽,
36', Ngom O. 🟨,
38', Siebert J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ndaba C. ↓, Gallo A. ↑,
46', Ngom O. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
64', Stulic N. ↓, Cheddira W. ↑,
64', Banda L. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
66', Joao Mario ↓, Zortea N. ↑,
74', Sohm S. ↓, Pobega T. ↑,
74', Cambiaghi N. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
83', Pierotti S. ↓, Sala A. ↑,
85', Castro S. ↓, Odgaard J. ↑,
85', Moro N. ↓, Bernardeschi F. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 0, Orsolini R. ⚽, Bernardeschi F. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 2.

Bologna has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lecce is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bologna may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bologna is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bologna: Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Dominguez B. (Hip Injury) Ferguson L. (Red Card) Skorupski L. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Thigh Injury) Camarda F. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Bologna: Dallinga T. (Injury) Lykogiannis C. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Gaspar K. (Knee Injury) Sottil R. (Back Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:9. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Bologna won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 2.5:0.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Bologna: 0.25% Lecce: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3:6	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Bologna - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.04.26	Cremonese - Bologna	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Roma - Bologna	3:4 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
15.03.26	Sassuolo - Bologna	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LWLWW
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
06.04.26	Lecce - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
22.03.26	Roma - Lecce	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Napoli - Lecce	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lecce - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Como - Lecce	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Lecce - Bologna	2:2
09.02.25	Lecce - Bologna	0:0
02.11.24	Bologna - Lecce	1:0
11.02.24	Bologna - Lecce	4:0
03.12.23	Lecce - Bologna	1:1
04.06.23	Lecce - Bologna	2:3
23.10.22	Bologna - Lecce	2:0

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