Match Info

LaLiga - Round 2

Date: 25 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA French 1
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5, Okko Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga TV
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Athletic Bilbao		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.71	3.6	5
	1.75	3.55	4.95	Watch
	1.77	3.65	5.55
	1.91	3.17	4.44	Watch
	1.7	3.5	5
	1.7	3.55	5.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.69)	3.5 ↓ (3.53)	5.19 ↓ (5.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
54.5%

Draw
27.2%

Rayo Vallecano
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

26.7%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

24.2%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	9.5%	9.5%

Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Athletic (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Athletic (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (67 of 83 users predict this - 80.72%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.23% – 89.21%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (31 of 35 users predict this - 88.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 37 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 33 - 89.2%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 2 - 5.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 12. Areso J. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 7. Berenguer A. 10. Williams N. 21. Sannadi M.	13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 7. Palazon I. (C) 17. Lopez U. 6. Ciss P. 18. Garcia A. 19. de Frutos J. 4. Diaz P.
Substitutes
19. Boiro A. 34. De Luis J. 20. Gomez U. 2. Gorosabel A. 11. Guruzeta G. 15. Lekue I. 23. Navarro R. 27. Padilla A. (G) 24. Prados Diaz B. 8. Sancet O. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.	20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 27. Fernandez P. 30. Gil J. (G) 15. Gumbau G. 11. Nteka R. 22. Pacha 21. Perez F. 8. Trejo O. 23. Valentin O. 33. Vertrouwd J.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Ratiu A. 🟨,
23', Lopez U. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sannadi M. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
55', Lopez U. ↓, Gumbau G. ↑,
55', Diaz P. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Sancet O. (Pen),
67', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Prados Diaz B. ↑,
69', Garcia A. 🟨,
79', Chavarria P. 🟨,
79', Palazon I. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
79', de Frutos J. ↓, Nteka R. ↑,
79', Williams I. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
82', Chavarria P. ↓, Trejo O. ↑,
87', Berenguer A. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
88', Williams N. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 4.

Recent form of Athletic has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rayo Vallecano is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

In this match, Athletic is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Mumin A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Gomez U. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Valentin O. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 33:16. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:10. (average 2.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 55.73%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
17.08.25	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	3:2 ✺
Emirates Cup
09.08.25	Arsenal - Athletic Bilbao	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.08.25	Liverpool - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
04.08.25	Liverpool - Athletic Bilbao	4:1 ✺
30.07.25	Racing Santander - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLLL
- Rayo Vallecano
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Neman Grodno - Rayo Vallecano	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.08.25	Girona - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Sunderland - Rayo Vallecano	0:3 ✺
02.08.25	West Bromwich Albion - Rayo Vallecano	3:2 ✺
26.07.25	Zwolle - Rayo Vallecano	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
13.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano	3:1
01.12.24	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	1:2
25.05.24	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	0:1
02.12.23	Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano	4:0
05.03.23	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
17.09.22	Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano	3:2
23.01.22	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	0:1

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