Match Info

Liga F Women - Round 7

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Acevedo A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	17:00	DAZN
Brazil	12:00	DAZN Brasil
Canada	11:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Denmark	17:00	DAZN
Finland	18:00	DAZN
France	17:00	DAZN France
Germany	17:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Italy	17:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	00:00	DAZN Japan
New Zealand	04:00	DAZN New Zealand
Spain	17:00	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	17:00	DAZN
Switzerland	17:00	DAZN Switzerland
United Kingdom	16:00	DAZN, DAZN UK
Usa	11:00	DAZN USA


	Athletic Bilbao		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
				Watch
	6.9	4.55	1.34
	7.8	5	1.34
	8.25	4.28	1.39	Watch
	6.52	5.43	1.37
	4.2	3.75	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.73 ↑ (4.36)	4.6 ↑ (3.88)	1.41 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
13.8%

Draw
20.3%

Real Madrid
65.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20.9%

23.5%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.9%

22.4%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Real Madrid (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Nanclares A. (G) 20. Elexpuru A. 2. Torre Larranaga M. 4. Bibi 17. Nevado N. 8. Zubieta M. 14. Banos L. 5. Valero M. 11. Azkona A. (C) 21. Campos A. 18. Ortega S.	13. Frohms M. (G) 19. Navarro E. 4. Galvez Luna R. (C) 22. Andersson B. 21. Holmgaard S. 16. Angeldal F. 6. Toletti S. 8. Dabritz S. 10. Weir C. 11. Redondo A. 20. Feller N.
Substitutes
30. Agote D. 7. Amezaga J. 23. Arana E. 3. Landaluze N. 6. Oguiza I. 9. Sanadri 1. Santana O. (G) 19. Vilarino M. 27. Zaldivar N. 10. Zugasti P.	27. Bejarano N. 17. Bennison H. 5. Comendador P. 7. del Castillo A. 24. Keukelaar L. 23. Lakrar M. 1. Misa (G) 43. Santiago I. 12. Yasmim
Coaches
Lerga J.	Quesada P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', Feller N. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Weir C. ⚽, Navarro E. (A),
19', 0 - 2, Campos A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Banos L. ↓, Oguiza I. ↑,
46', Campos A. ↓, Agote D. ↑,
62', Redondo A. ↓, Santiago I. ↑,
62', Feller N. ↓, del Castillo A. ↑,
67', Valero M. ↓, Amezaga J. ↑,
71', Holmgaard S. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Nevado N. ⚽,
76', Holmgaard S. ↓, Yasmim ↑,
76', Dabritz S. ↓, Keukelaar L. ↑,
76', Azkona A. ↓, Zugasti P. ↑,
81', Galvez Luna R. 🟨,
82', 1 - 3, Weir C. ⚽, del Castillo A. (A),
85', Toletti S. ↓, Bennison H. ↑,
85', Torre Larranaga M. ↓, Landaluze N. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 4, Santiago I. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Primera Federacion Women and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 0.

Athletic has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Real Madrid is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real Madrid may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Real Madrid has had a series of home games.

In this match, Real Madrid is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 5:21. (average 0.5:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:13. (average 0.7:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao Women
Spanish Liga F Women
04.10.25	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
07.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona	1:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTTLL
- Real Madrid Women
UEFA Champions League Women
08.10.25	Real Madrid - Roma	6:2 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Badalona	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Tenerife - Real Madrid	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Real Madrid - Deportivo A Coruña	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
18.09.25	Real Madrid - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga F Women
02.03.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	1:2
22.09.24	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	2:0
09.06.24	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
27.01.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:1
Spanish Copa De La Reina
24.05.23	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:4
Spanish Liga F Women
28.01.23	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	2:1
02.10.22	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:3

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