Match Info

Liga F Women - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama)

Referee: Gonzalez Z. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana


	Athletic Bilbao		Sevilla

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.2	3.75
	1.91	3.41	3.97
	1.88	3.27	4.22	Watch
	1.84	3.26	4.02
	1.67	3.58	4.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.69)	3.34 ↓ (3.49)	4.1 ↓ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
50.1%

Draw
27.5%

Sevilla
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

25.9%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

25.2%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Sevilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sevilla than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Nanclares A. (G) 27. Zaldivar N. 3. Landaluze N. 2. Torre Larranaga M. 17. Nevado N. 5. Valero M. 8. Zubieta M. 18. Ortega S. 30. Agote D. 11. Azkona A. (C) 7. Amezaga J.	1. Sullastres E. (C) 7. Morcillo R. 24. Marques A. 5. Llamas E. 4. Alvarez I. 15. Martin-Pozuelo E. 16. Arnaiz I. 20. Marquez R. 6. Redondo A. 23. Gabarro I. 8. Alvarez A.
Substitutes
23. Arana E. 14. Banos L. 21. Campos A. 33. Gurtubay E. 6. Oguiza I. 9. Sanadri 1. Santana O. (G) 19. Vilarino M.	19. Cerrato A. 13. Echezarreta M. (G) 22. Hagel C. 9. Kanteh Cham F. 30. Lopez A. 11. Moral L. 34. Torres J.
Coaches
Lerga J.	Losada D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', Martin-Pozuelo E. 🟨,
25', Morcillo R. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Nevado N. (Pen),
45+8', Valero M. 🟨,
45+9', 1 - 1, Alvarez I. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Amezaga J. 🟨,
60', Redondo A. ↓, Hagel C. ↑,
60', Morcillo R. ↓, Kanteh Cham F. ↑,
62', Alvarez I. 🟨,
66', Valero M. ↓, Oguiza I. ↑,
76', Marques A. 🟥,
81', Zaldivar N. ↓, Vilarino M. ↑,
81', Azkona A. ↓, Campos A. ↑,
81', Gabarro I. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
85', Losada D. 🟨,
88', Alvarez A. ↓, Cerrato A. ↑,
90', Amezaga J. ↓, Sanadri ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 12)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.

Athletic has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Sevilla has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletic is a strong favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:17. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 53.45%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao Women
Spanish Liga F Women
20.09.25	Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
07.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona	1:8 ✺
30.08.25	Athletic Bilbao - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly Women
16.08.25	Athletic Bilbao - Eibar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLTT
- Sevilla FC Women
Spanish Liga F Women
21.09.25	Sevilla - Barcelona	0:5 ✺
13.09.25	Real Sociedad - Sevilla	3:0 ✺
06.09.25	Sevilla - Tenerife	0:4 ✺
31.08.25	Eibar - Sevilla	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly Women
20.08.25	Betis - Sevilla	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga F Women
15.03.25	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	0:1
15.12.24	Sevilla - Athletic Bilbao	2:5
16.06.24	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	2:1
17.12.23	Sevilla - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
24.03.23	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	1:1
17.12.22	Sevilla - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
15.05.22	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	1:4

Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide