Match Info

Liga F Women - Round 20

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama)

Referee: Pelaez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	DAZN Canada
Ecuador	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Paraguay	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App
Spain	DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana, ETB, Gol Play, GolStadium, Movistar Plus+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN


	Athletic Bilbao		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.35	3.55	1.65	Watch
	4.85	3.59	1.73
	4.86	3.81	1.66	Watch
	4.4	3.5	1.65
	4.56	3.69	1.73
	4.75	3.66	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.63 ↑ (3.61)	3.63 ↑ (3.26)	1.68 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
19.9%

Draw
25.3%

Real Sociedad
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

27.7%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

26.8%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Sociedad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Sociedad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Nanclares A. (G) 20. Elexpuru A. 3. Landaluze N. 23. Arana E. 27. Zaldivar N. 14. Banos L. 8. Zubieta M. 18. Ortega S. 15. Pinedo C. (C) 22. Agote D. 21. Campos A.	13. Arrula J. (G) 12. Rodriguez Herrero L. M. 2. Florentino C. 3. Vicente A. (C) 24. Agirrezabala A. 21. Ramirez E. 22. Cahynova K. 5. Fernandez P. 14. Eguiguren I. 8. Jacinto A. 18. Lavogez C.
Substitutes
29. Aguirregomezcorta O. 11. Azkona A. 33. Gurtubay E. 17. Nevado N. 6. Oguiza I. 2. Torre Larranaga M. 26. Vega Z. (G) 19. Vilarino M.	19. Aparicio A. 10. Eizaguirre N. 1. Estensoro A. (G) 6. Guridi E. 11. Marcos C. 7. Pardo L. 9. Uria Gabilondo M.
Coaches
Lerga J.	Ruiz A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Agirrezabala A. ⚽,
35', 0 - 2, Fernandez P. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Banos L. ↓, Gurtubay E. ↑,
46', Campos A. ↓, Azkona A. ↑,
58', Ramirez E. ↓, Aparicio A. ↑,
60', Zaldivar N. ↓, Nevado N. ↑,
61', Zubieta M. 🟨,
67', Florentino C. 🟨,
71', Pinedo C. ↓, Vilarino M. ↑,
73', Fernandez P. 🟨,
74', Lavogez C. ↓, Uria Gabilondo M. ↑,
75', Jacinto A. ↓, Pardo L. ↑,
78', Zubieta M. ↓, Oguiza I. ↑,
88', Eguiguren I. ↓, Marcos C. ↑,
90+3', Oguiza I. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League Women (Qualification ~ Second stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3.

Athletic has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real Sociedad is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Sociedad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Athletic has had a series of away games.

In this match, Real Sociedad is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.7:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletic Bilbao W	6	3	2	1	11:8	3	11
15	Real Sociedad W	6	1	2	3	7:11	-4	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao Women
Spanish Liga F Women
08.02.26	Sevilla - Athletic Bilbao	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa De La Reina
04.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	4:1 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
31.01.26	Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol	2:1 ✺
Spanish Supercopa Women
21.01.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	3:1 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
18.01.26	Tenerife - Athletic Bilbao	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL
- Real Sociedad Women
Spanish Liga F Women
08.02.26	Real Sociedad - Badalona	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa De La Reina
05.02.26	Real Sociedad - Badalona	0:1 ET ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
01.02.26	Tenerife - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Real Sociedad - Eibar	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Sevilla - Real Sociedad	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga F Women
16.11.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
16.02.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	2:0
17.11.24	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
23.03.24	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	0:1
22.10.23	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	2:1
02.04.23	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
19.11.22	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:3

Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide