Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Athletic Bilbao B		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.1
	2.55	3	2.5
	2.28	3.15	3
	2.22	3.37	3.14
	2.25	3.39	3.04	Watch
	2.25	3	2.8
	2.21	3.24	2.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.8)	3.16 ↓ (3.66)	2.93 ↓ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao B
40%

Draw
28.8%

CD Guadalajara
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25.4%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

24.8%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao B's form might have worsened.

CD Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting CD Guadalajara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for CD Guadalajara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Athletic Bilbao B - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Santos M. (G) 2. Irurita X. 4. Dunabeitia A. 3. De Luis J. 19. Louis-Jean J. 11. Bujan E. 18. Garcia E. 10. Sanchez I. 26. Sola J. 23. Gift E. 9. Sanz I.	13. Vicente D. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 4. Ablanque J. 23. Casado J. 2. Perez L. 16. Cadete 11. Alvarez U. 20. Miki 14. Tavares R. 19. Munoz P. 7. Neskes
Substitutes
15. Alday I. 12. Barandalla M. 31. Conde A. 27. Galindo I. (G) 21. Garcia B. 6. Gibelalde M. 7. Hierro A. 17. Huestamendia P. 20. Korkut E. 8. Lete E. 5. Monreal I. 22. Perez A.	10. Amigo D. 32. Delgado A. 26. Lopez M. (G) 18. Martinez J. 3. Moreno A. 21. Perero G. 15. Rodriguez V. 6. Rojo P. 22. Samuel 34. Susilla S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Perez L. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Sanchez I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
70', 2 - 0, Gift E. ⚽,
71', 🟨,
77', 2 - 1, Alvarez U. (Penalty Awarded),
90+15', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Athletic Bilbao B is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Guadalajara's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Guadalajara may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Athletic Bilbao B won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Athletic Bilbao B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ath Bilbao B	6	3	2	1	12:8	4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao B - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.56%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

CD Guadalajara - the odds 4.02 are the expected chance of winning is 23.09%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.05.26	Pontevedra - Athletic Bilbao B	4:0 ✺
03.05.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ourense CF	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
10.04.26	Cacereño - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTLL
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.05.26	CD Guadalajara - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Real Avilés - CD Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
24.04.26	Cacereño - CD Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	CD Guadalajara - Pontevedra	1:4 ✺
12.04.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - CD Guadalajara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
02.04.15	CD Guadalajara - Athletic Bilbao B	0:0
16.11.14	Athletic Bilbao B - CD Guadalajara	2:0

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