The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Athletic Bilbao B 56.7%
Draw 24.4%
Real Madrid Castilla 18.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38.5%
28.3%
33.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39%
27.9%
32.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletic Bilbao B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Bilbao B's performance.
Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid Castilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (-17.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Bilbao B that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+13.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid Castilla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Athletic Bilbao B - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic Bilbao B (votes: 1 - 100%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gamen E. (G) 2. Irurita X. 28. Monreal I. 4. Dunabeitia A. 19. Louis-Jean J. 22. Perez A. 18. Garcia E. 10. Sanchez I. 8. Lete E. 11. Bujan E. 9. Sanz I.
1. Fran (G) 17. Fortea J. 3. Valdepenas V. 15. Martinez J. 23. Fati L. 8. Moran M. A. (C) 14. Cestero Sancho J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 28. Martin R.
Substitutes
30. Alboniga-Menor 31. Conde A. 5. Ebro Cortina E. 29. Eghosa 27. Galindo I. (G) 6. Gibelalde M. 23. Gift 7. Hierro A. 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 26. Sola J. 20. Vizcay T.
21. Aguado D. 20. Fortuny P. 2. Jimenez D. 29. Ortega J. 6. Perea C. 27. Pitarch Pinar T. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Sanz I. ⚽,
13', Lete E. 🟨,
29', Cestero Sancho J. 🟨,
35', Sanz I. 🟨,
37', Cestero Sancho J. 🟨,
37', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Bujan E. 🟨,
57', Lete E. ↓, Gibelalde M. ↑,
58', Dunabeitia A. 🟨,
62', Louis-Jean J. ↓, Nomayo W. ↑,
62', Perez A. ↓, Gift E. ↑,
75', Sanz I. ↓, Conde A. ↑,
75', Bujan E. ↓, Hierro A. ↑,
81', 🟨,
Preview
Athletic Bilbao B is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
In recent matches, Real Madrid Castilla has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2).
Real Madrid Castilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Athletic Bilbao B has had a series of away games.
Recently, Real Madrid Castilla has had a series of home games.
Athletic Bilbao B might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic Bilbao B won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Athletic Bilbao B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).
Last Results with these Odds
Athletic Bilbao B - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.52%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.
Spain
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Gamen E. (G) 
Louis-Jean J. 
Zuniga L. 
Alboniga-Menor 
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