Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 5

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Ferreira J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Volta Redonda

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	4	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.9
	1.92	3.45	3.9
	1.92	3.52	4.26
	1.88	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.2
	1.9	3.4	4.17	Watch
	1.92	3.45	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.82)	3.4 ↓ (3.47)	4.07 ↓ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
49.5%

Draw
27.5%

Volta Redonda
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

26.7%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

22.5%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Volta Redonda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Club that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Volta Redonda than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Athletic Club - Volta Redonda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jefferson Luis (G) 52. Wesley Gasolina 45. Edson Miranda 4. Sidimar (C) 84. Rodrigo Gelado 38. Sandry 10. David Braga 37. Amorim 77. Max 19. Neto Costa 11. Ezequiel	12. Jean Drosny (G) 13. Jhonny 3. Gabriel Pinheiro 26. Gabriel Bahia 6. Sanchez (C) 28. Andre Luiz 8. Robinho 7. Luciano Naninho 27. Mirandinha 9. Bruno Santos 17. Vitinho Lopes
Substitutes
31. Adriel (G) 8. Andrey 20. Caick 2. Douglas Pele 70. Eduardo Freire (G) 14. Gabriel Brigida 3. Gabriel Ferreira 23. Gustavao 9. Lincoln 15. Martinez F. 18. Matheus Guilherme 7. Welinton Torrao	1. Avelino (G) 16. Caio Roque 23. Dener 21. Henrique Silva 29. Hyuri 15. Lucas Adell 25. Lucas Tocantins 18. Marquinhos 30. Rai 2. Wellington Silva 14. Ynaia
Coaches
Roger Silva	Rogerio Correa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Bruno Santos 🟨,
3', 1 - 0, Neto Costa ⚽, Amorim (A),
19', Neto Costa 🟨,
38', Rodrigo Gelado 🟨,
45+2', Wesley Gasolina ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Max ↓, Welinton Torrao ↑,
57', Ezequiel ↓, Matheus Guilherme ↑,
57', David Braga ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
59', Robinho ↓, Dener ↑,
59', Vitinho Lopes ↓, Henrique Silva ↑,
61', Edson Miranda ↓, Gabriel Ferreira ↑,
67', Martinez F. 🟨,
67', Luciano Naninho ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
67', Mirandinha ↓, Lucas Tocantins ↑,
70', Gabriel Pinheiro 🟨,
73', 2 - 0, Neto Costa (Pen),
80', Andre Luiz ↓, Rai ↑,
83', Martinez F. 🟨,
90+2', Sanchez 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 1, Gabriel Pinheiro ⚽,

Preview

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Volta Redonda could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Athletic is a favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Diego Fumaca (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Volta Redonda: Pierre (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Athletic: Alason Carioca (Injury)

There are questionable in Volta Redonda: Fabricio (Inactive) Juninho Monteiro (Inactive)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Athletic won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Athletic won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
20.04.25	Chapecoense - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
17.04.25	Criciúma - Athletic Club	4:0 ✺
13.04.25	Athletic Club - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
07.04.25	Atlético Goianiense - Athletic Club	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
15.03.25	Athletic Club - Uberlândia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLLW
- Volta Redonda
Brazilian Serie B
22.04.25	Volta Redonda - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
17.04.25	CRB Maceio - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Volta Redonda - Cuiabá	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
09.03.25	Volta Redonda - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
19.10.24	Athletic Club - Volta Redonda	0:2
12.10.24	Volta Redonda - Athletic Club	1:0
09.06.24	Athletic Club - Volta Redonda	3:2
Copa do Brasil
27.02.24	Athletic Club - Volta Redonda	1:0

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