Match Info

Serie B - Round 4

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Chapecoense		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.75
	1.91	3.35	4
	1.93	3.45	4.34
	1.9	3.31	4.21	Watch
	2.05	3	3.9
	1.88	3.37	4.16	Watch
	1.91	3.35	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.01)	3.29 ↑ (3.23)	4.07 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
48.5%

Draw
28.4%

Athletic Club
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28.8%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27.4%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Chapecoense - Athletic Club Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Chapecoense (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chapecoense will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chapecoense will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 25. Victor Caetano 4. Joao Paulo 22. Mailton 16. Bruno Matias 99. Rafael Carvalheira 10. Giovanni Augusto 37. Clar W. 77. Italo 9. Mario Sergio	1. Jefferson Luis (G) 2. Douglas Pele 3. Gabriel Ferreira 45. Edson Miranda 4. Sidimar 84. Rodrigo Gelado 5. Diego Fumaca (C) 37. Amorim 10. David Braga 11. Ezequiel 9. Lincoln
Substitutes
97. Dentinho 3. Eduardo Doma 27. Eduardo Person 26. Everton 11. Getulio 5. Jorge Jimenez 90. Mailson 6. Mancha 95. Marcinho 8. Marlon 1. Rafael Santos (G) 30. Thomas Bedinelli	8. Andrey 70. Eduardo Freire (G) 23. Gustavo Silva 15. Martinez F. 18. Matheus Mega 77. Max 19. Neto Costa 39. Sandry 7. Welinton Torrao
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Gabriel Ferreira 🟨,
28', Mailton 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, Mario Sergio ⚽, Mailton (A),
62', Lincoln ↓, Neto Costa ↑,
62', Ezequiel ↓, Max ↑,
66', Diego Fumaca 🟨,
68', Diego Fumaca ↓, Sandry ↑,
70', Joao Paulo ↓, Eduardo Doma ↑,
77', Mailton ↓, Dentinho ↑,
77', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Eduardo Person ↑,
86', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
87', Italo ↓, Mailson ↑,
87', Gabriel Ferreira ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
87', Sidimar ↓, Welinton Torrao ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Chapecoense is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Athletic is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chapecoense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Chapecoense will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Athletic: Adriel (Red Card) Alason Carioca (Injury) Wesley Gasolina (Red Card)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
16.04.25	Paysandu - Chapecoense	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Chapecoense - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	CRB Maceio - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
22.03.25	Avaí - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Chapecoense - Avaí	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLLTT
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
17.04.25	Criciúma - Athletic Club	4:0 ✺
13.04.25	Athletic Club - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
07.04.25	Atlético Goianiense - Athletic Club	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
15.03.25	Athletic Club - Uberlândia	3:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Athletic Club - Grêmio	3:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLWL

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