The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Athletico Paranaense 55.1%
Draw 25.4%
Vasco da Gama 19.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52%
26.2%
21.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
51.8%
26.1%
21.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
54.5%
27.3%
18.2%
Athletico Paranaense - Vasco da Gama Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Vasco will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 25.1% – 83.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
41. Mycael (G) 4. Kaique Rocha 44. Thiago Heleno (C) 37. Esquivel L. 3. Gabriel 26. Erick 88. Christian 10. Zapelli B. 28. Cuello 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 14. Canobbio A.
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Maicon 3. Leo 6. Lucas Piton 25. Hugo Moura 20. Sforza J. 10. Payet D. 77. Rayan Vitor 99. Vegetti P. (C) 7. David
Substitutes
53. Dudu Kogitzki 23. Felipinho 15. Gamarra M. 29. Godoy L. 57. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 61. Leo Derik 24. Leo Linck (G) 45. Lucas Belezi 22. Madson 11. Nikao 92. Pablo
90. Alex Teixeira 27. Galdames P. 19. GB 21. Jean David 13. Keiller (G) 66. Leandrinho 85. Mateus Carvalho 17. Rodriguez E. 2. Rodriguez J. 32. Rojas R. 5. Souza 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Varini M.
Paiva R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Cuello ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
26', Kaique Rocha 🟨,
28', Madson 🟨,
30', Sforza J. 🟨,
33', 2 - 0, Zapelli B. ⚽, Cuello (A),
42', Rayan Vitor 🟥,
45+1', 2 - 1, Vegetti P. ⚽, Lucas Piton (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Payet D. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
48', Zapelli B. 🟨,
62', David ↓, Leandrinho ↑,
67', Zapelli B. ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
69', Souza 🟨,
77', Christian ↓, Pablo ↑,
77', Erick ↓, Madson ↑,
78', Thiago Heleno ↓, Gamarra M. ↑,
79', Lucas Piton ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
79', Hugo Moura ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
90+2', Gonzalo Mastriani 🟨,
90+4', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Pablo (Pen),
1, Sforza J. (Pen),
2, Gonzalo Mastriani (Pen),
2, Rodriguez J. (Pen),
3, Canobbio A. (Pen),
3, Victor Luis (Pen),
4, Madson (Pen),
4, Mateus Carvalho (Pen),
5, Joao Cruz (Pen),
5, Vegetti P. (Pen),
Preview
2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.
Last 5 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 2.
Athletico PR is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Vasco is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
In this match Athletico PR is a favorite.
Last 17 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 9 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 26-12.
Including matches at home between the teams Athletico PR won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 19-3.
Watch
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Mycael (G) 
Esquivel L. 
Gonzalo Mastriani 
Payet D. 
Gamarra M. 
Galdames P. 
Rodriguez E. 
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