Match Info

Copa Federacion - Semi-finals

Date: 15 October 2025, Wednesday


	Atlètic Lleida		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2
	3.15	3.1	1.97
	3.51	3.13	2.03
	3.57	3.24	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↓ (3.68)	3.14 ↓ (3.2)	1.99 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlètic Lleida
26.3%

Draw
28.6%

Ourense CF
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

28.3%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

27.2%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlètic Lleida has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlètic Lleida than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Atlètic Lleida - Ourense CF Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlètic Lleida (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 3)
46', 0 - 1, Bouzaig A. ⚽,
54', 1 - 1, Garros B. ⚽,
63', 2 - 1, Garros B. ⚽,
66', 2 - 2, Ramos J. ⚽,
68', 2 - 3, Ouhdadi O. ⚽,
90+7', 3 - 3, Mas C. ⚽,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
107', Carmona F. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Arnau M. (Pen),
1, Ramos J. (Pen),
2, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
5, (Pen),
5, (Pen),

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Atlètic Lleida may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ourense CF has had a series of away games.

Ourense CF could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlètic Lleida
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
12.10.25	Espanyol B - Atlètic Lleida	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Atlètic Lleida - Girona B	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Olot - Atlètic Lleida	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Atlètic Lleida - Terrassa	2:2 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
17.09.25	Atlètic Lleida - Formentera	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTLTW
- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.10.25	Celta de Vigo B - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Ferrol - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
01.10.25	Bergantiños - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.09.25	Ourense CF - Pontevedra	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Tenerife - Ourense CF	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TTWLL

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