Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Ourense CF		Pontevedra

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.45
	2.82	3	2.45
	2.83	3	2.65
	25.00	13.83	1.00	Watch
	2.83	2.97	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.24 ↑ (2.33)	5.16 ↑ (3.03)	2.21 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
17.6%

Draw
24.7%

Pontevedra
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

30%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

29.9%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ourense CF's form might have worsened.

Pontevedra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+26.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pontevedra's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+21.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ourense CF, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontevedra than the current prediction. (-26.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pontevedra, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ourense CF - Pontevedra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 2. Coto E. 14. Perez A. 4. Carmona F. 3. Sanz H. 11. Aranzabe A. 8. Ramos J. 22. Yuste A. 17. Ouhdadi O. 7. Bouzaig A. 9. Vazquez K.	13. Marqueta R. (G) 2. Eimil V. 23. Montoro A. 4. Bosch M. 15. Juanra 6. Ribeiro A. 16. Vidorreta A. 24. Rodriguez T. 10. Pino Y. (C) 8. Abelenda B. 14. Resende J.
Substitutes
10. Camus M. 6. Castillo N. 19. Garcia D. 21. Guerrero A. 20. Gueye L. 12. Jelbat A. 24. Moreno C. 16. Munoz D. 15. Piera J. 5. Prado M. 23. Punzano I. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G)	22. Comparada Gonzalez A. 5. Conesa N. 11. Cuesta M. 20. Denia M. 3. Exposito A. 19. Garay B. 7. Gonzalez A. 17. Macias L. 9. Selma D. 1. Sousa E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Ribeiro A. ⚽,
24', Bosch M. 🟨,
30', Sanz H. 🟨,
36', Montoro A. 🟨,
39', 🟨,
40', 🟨,
45+2', Coto E. 🟥,
45+6', 0 - 2, Abelenda B. ⚽,
45+11', Bouzaig A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Perez A. ↓, Jelbat A. ↑,
46', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Guerrero A. ↑,
61', Sanz H. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
61', Carmona F. ↓, Prado M. ↑,
67', 🟨,
70', Resende J. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
75', Aranzabe A. ↓, Camus M. ↑,
79', 🟨,
80', Ribeiro A. ↓, Macias L. ↑,
80', Abelenda B. ↓, Selma D. ↑,
84', 🟨,
85', 1 - 2, Vazquez K. ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

Ourense CF has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pontevedra's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pontevedra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ourense CF won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Including home match between the teams, Ourense CF won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Tenerife - Ourense CF	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
17.09.25	Ourense CF - Zamora	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Ourense CF - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Laredo - Ourense CF	1:5 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.09.25	Osasuna B - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLWT
- Pontevedra CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.09.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Pontevedra - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Ponferradina - Pontevedra	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Pontevedra - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
20.08.25	Coruxo - Pontevedra	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
21.04.24	Pontevedra - Ourense CF	0:2
09.12.23	Ourense CF - Pontevedra	0:0

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