Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal da Malata (Ferrol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ferrol		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.4	5.5
	1.55	3.5	5.25
	1.6	3.55	5.5
	1.53	3.6	7.71
	3.24	3.07	2.27	Watch
	1.6	3.52	5.82
	1.54	3.5	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.73)	3.45 ↑ (3.3)	5.35 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrol
53.8%

Draw
28.1%

Ourense CF
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

27.3%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

26.4%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Ferrol - Ourense CF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parera P. M. (G) 22. Mardones A. 17. Ramon A. 15. Zalaya A. 3. Pujol E. 20. Gimenez A. 8. Gorostidi A. 23. Pena A. 5. Noriega J. 11. Dacosta R. 7. Alvaro J.	1. Raton A. (G) 3. Sanz H. 4. Carmona F. 22. Yuste A. 5. Prado M. 7. Bouzaig A. 8. Ramos J. 12. Jelbat A. 16. Munoz D. 21. Guerrero A. 17. Ouhdadi O.
Substitutes
4. Artetxe M. 21. Carballo D. 12. Chema 18. Concha D. 25. Diaz L. (G) 9. Escobar A. 24. Garcia A. 16. Garcia S. 6. Gelardo A. 2. Miguel 10. Pascu 14. Tejera S.	11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 6. Castillo N. 26. Comas O. 19. Garcia D. 20. Gueye L. 24. Moreno C. 14. Perez A. 23. Punzano I. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Vazquez K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Sanz H. ⚽, Guerrero A. (A),
25', Pena A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Alvaro J. ↓, Tejera S. ↑,
46', Pena A. ↓, Miguel ↑,
46', Mardones A. ↓, Concha D. ↑,
60', Gimenez A. ↓, Escobar A. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Concha D. ⚽,
66', Munoz D. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
66', Ramos J. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
73', Guerrero A. ↓, Camus M. ↑,
73', Tejera S. 🟨,
74', Parera P. M. 🟨,
81', Dacosta R. ↓, Pascu ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Ferrol is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ourense CF's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ourense CF may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ferrol is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ferrol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.09.25	Ferrol - CD Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Lugo - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
17.09.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ferrol - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TLWWW
- Ourense CF
Spanish Copa Federacion
01.10.25	Bergantiños - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.09.25	Ourense CF - Pontevedra	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Tenerife - Ourense CF	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
17.09.25	Ourense CF - Zamora	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Ourense CF - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.07.24	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:0
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
26.01.19	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:1

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