Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 30

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday


	Atlético Astorga		Lealtad

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.2	3.9
	1.84	3.44	4.1
	1.92	3.41	3.66	Watch
	1.83	3.1	4
	1.9	3.37	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.81)	3.3 ↓ (3.41)	3.94 ↓ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Astorga
49%

Draw
27.7%

Lealtad
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

26.7%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.5%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Astorga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Lealtad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Astorga than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lealtad than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Atlético Astorga - Lealtad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
33', 0 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽,
40', 0 - 2, Pereira N. ⚽,
45', 0 - 3, Hernandez O. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
57', 1 - 3, Cervero A. ⚽,
60', 1 - 4, Alvarez J. ⚽,
63', Selles 🟥,
67', 2 - 4, Albertin ⚽,
72', 3 - 4, Jimenez J. ⚽,
90+3', 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Atlético Astorga is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lealtad's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Atlético Astorga is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Astorga won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Astorga won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 3.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Atl. Astorga	5	1	0	4	5:7	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Astorga
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
29.03.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Atlético Astorga	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	Atlético Astorga - Gimnástica Segoviana	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Numancia - Atlético Astorga	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Atlético Astorga - Marino de Luanco	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Sámano - Atlético Astorga	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LTWWW
- CD Lealtad
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
29.03.26	Lealtad - Burgos Promesas	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Lealtad	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Bergantiños - Lealtad	3:0 ✺
08.03.26	Lealtad - Gimnástica Segoviana	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Rayo Cantabria - Lealtad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
02.11.25	Lealtad - Atlético Astorga	1:2
30.04.16	Atlético Astorga - Lealtad	1:1
13.12.15	Lealtad - Atlético Astorga	1:0
14.02.15	Atlético Astorga - Lealtad	6:2
28.09.14	Lealtad - Atlético Astorga	1:1

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