Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 11

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Tapadinha (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Atlético CP		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	2.58	2.92	2.58
	2.82	3.05	2.8
	2.68	2.92	2.77	Watch
	2.64	3.21	2.64	Watch
	2.66	2.8	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.64)	2.98 ↑ (2.84)	2.69 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético CP
34.6%

Draw
31%

Belenenses
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

32.2%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

33.1%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético CP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Atlético CP - Belenenses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferreira F. (G) 10. Caleb 11. Delcio 18. Dias R. 28. Dinamite D. 3. Gonzalez F. 4. Henriques D. 14. Joaozinho 6. Pascoal C. 31. Paulinho 38. Santana C.	99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 27. Barros E. 31. David Rebelo 17. Horta Leitao D. 21. Morgado T. 4. Nuno Tomas (C) 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 16. Souza E. 19. Valente A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Joaozinho ⚽, Caleb (A),
12', Dias R. 🟨,
14', 1 - 1, Valente A. ⚽,
35', Henriques D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', David Rebelo ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
59', 1 - 2, Pinto A. ⚽, Paulo D. (A),
60', Pascoal C. ↓, Sousa C. ↑,
68', Paulo D. 🟨,
69', Delcio ↓, Nicolas Souza ↑,
69', Dias R. ↓, Okoli F. ↑,
71', Valente A. 🟨,
76', Dinamite D. 🟨,
76', Valente A. ↓, Afonso A. ↑,
76', Souza E. ↓, Paredes J. ↑,
77', Nicolas Souza 🟨,
78', Paulinho ↓, Marques R. ↑,
78', Dinamite D. ↓, Santos R. ↑,
85', Paulo D. ↓, Lucas J. ↑,
85', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Teixeira J. ↑,
90+3', Barros E. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Atlético CP may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Belenenses has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético CP won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético CP won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético CP
Taça de Portugal
21.11.25	Atlético CP - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
08.11.25	Amora - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Mafra - Atlético CP	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Atlético CP - Covilhã	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Atlético CP - Felgueiras	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTLTW
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Belenenses - Mafra	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Belenenses - União de Santarém	0:2 ✺
26.10.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Belenenses - Estoril Praia	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.25	Belenenses - Covilhã	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
17.08.25	Belenenses - Atlético CP	1:0
05.04.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	2:2
07.02.25	Belenenses - Atlético CP	1:1
01.12.24	Belenenses - Atlético CP	0:0
18.08.24	Atlético CP - Belenenses	0:1

Atlético CP - Belenenses: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide