Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 5

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.9	6.1
	1.46	4.26	7.19
	1.01	1.00	1.00	Watch
	1.44	3.85	6.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.54)	3.25 ↓ (3.8)	5.3 ↓ (5.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
60.1%

Draw
24.7%

Covilhã
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

24.3%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

26.3%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Belenenses - Covilhã Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Belenenses (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Belenenses will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Belenenses will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Belenenses (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 14. Afonso A. 22. Bandarra M. 27. Barros E. 66. Cesinha 17. Horta Leitao D. 21. Morgado T. 4. Nuno Tomas 20. Paulo D. 10. Sambu M. 16. Souza E.	31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 6. Barbosa A. 33. Calegari A. 19. Cruz F. 20. Ferreira R. 55. Garcia F. 22. Gomes Silva E. 96. Jailson 79. Liberal A. 25. Loureiro G. 77. Silva M.
Substitutes
26. Acosta Pinerez C. A. 13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 7. Eduardo W. 2. Machado J. 9. Paredes J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.	26. Balsa C. 2. Candido 21. Cunha V. 9. Faria R. 74. Igreja T. (G) 28. Lontsi V. 10. Mica 13. Ribeiro P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Silva M. (Own goal),
31', 2 - 0, Paulo D. ⚽, Sambu M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jailson ↓, Coelho R. ↑,
46', Garcia F. ↓, Mica ↑,
52', Coelho R. 🟨,
54', Cesinha 🟨,
66', Afonso A. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
66', Horta Leitao D. ↓, David Rebelo ↑,
71', 3 - 0, David Rebelo ⚽, Valente A. (A),
73', Souza E. ↓, Paredes J. ↑,
73', Cruz F. ↓, Peixoto R. ↑,
80', Paulo D. ↓, Cuca ↑,
80', Morgado T. ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Belenenses have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Covilhã is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Belenenses is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
04.10.25	Belenenses - Caldas	0:2 ✺
28.09.25	Amora - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Belenenses - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	4:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Belenenses - Amora	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWLW
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
05.10.25	Académica Coimbra - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Ovarense - Covilhã	2:3 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Covilhã - Mafra	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	União de Santarém - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
13.12.24	Belenenses - Covilhã	2:2
01.09.24	Covilhã - Belenenses	2:2

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