Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo Conde de Sucena (Sintra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	1 Dezembro		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.15	1.98
	3.97	3.28	1.95
	3.88	3.26	1.95	Watch
	3.65	3.15	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.73 ↓ (4.12)	3.21 ↓ (3.33)	1.96 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

1 Dezembro
24.6%

Draw
28.6%

Belenenses
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

28.1%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

27.6%

50.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

1 Dezembro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

1 Dezembro - Belenenses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
47. Oliveira J. (G) 13. Bernardo J. 24. Edu 33. Mane L. 44. Gomes C. 85. Infante A. 55. Vito 31. Gaio P. 50. Karvounis P. 20. Harramiz S. 25. Dahlke J.	99. Oliveira G. (G) 66. Cesinha 20. Paulo D. 4. Nuno Tomas 22. Bandarra M. 14. Afonso A. 21. Morgado T. 27. Barros E. 10. Sambu M. 9. Paredes J. 17. Horta Leitao D.
Substitutes
88. Abreu M. 96. Arroyo J. 79. Cardoso D. 91. Diawara M. 1. Duarte F. (G) 22. Graciano T. 23. Menezes L. 2. Ramos P. 39. Wieselsberger J.	13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 11. Duda 7. Eduardo W. 15. Lucas J. 16. Souza E. 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 🟨,
17', Infante A. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Morgado T. ⚽, Barros E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Horta Leitao D. 🟨,
58', 🟨,
60', Dahlke J. 🟨,
81', Nuno Tomas 🟨,
85', 🟨,
90+5', Bernardo J. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Belenenses may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Belenenses has had a series of home games.

Belenenses is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, 1 Dezembro won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, 1 Dezembro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SU 1 Dezembro
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	1 Dezembro - SB Castelo Branco	2:1 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
12.10.25	Atlético CP - 1 Dezembro	4:0 ✺
05.10.25	Mafra - 1 Dezembro	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	1 Dezembro - União de Santarém	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Peniche - 1 Dezembro	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLTW
- Os Belenenses
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Belenenses - Estoril Praia	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.25	Belenenses - Covilhã	3:0 ✺
04.10.25	Belenenses - Caldas	0:2 ✺
28.09.25	Amora - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Belenenses - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
13.04.25	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	2:0
15.02.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	3:1
09.11.24	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:1
10.08.24	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	0:0

1 Dezembro - Belenenses: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide