Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Atlético de Madrid CD (Alcala de Henares) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Clemente Ortuno A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	12:00	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Atlético Madrid B		Real Jaén

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.30	3.70
	1.87	3.50	3.30
	1.73	3.55	3.90
	1.93	3.80	3.69
	1.8	3.86	3.91	Watch
	1.89	3.45	3.65
	1.93	3.44	3.85
	1.92	3.50	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.15)	3.55 ↑ (3.42)	3.69 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid B
49.2%

Draw
25.9%

Real Jaén
24.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.1%

27.1%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

27.6%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Madrid B's performance.

Real Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid B than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Madrid B that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Atlético Madrid B - Real Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Astralaga A. (G) 14. Hueso R. 29. Gil Rodriguez M. 3. Gil J. 22. Sola A. 8. Castillo J. (C) 20. Alcaniz E. 15. Garcia D. 21. Kamate I. 10. Cubo M. 19. Domenech M.	1. Morillas J. (G) 6. Alvarez J. 17. Moyano J. (C) 20. Cabello M. 11. Martos M. 10. Adri P. 8. Caballero A. 19. Keita M. 23. Rodriguez D. 21. Sanhaji M. 3. Serrano D.
Substitutes
17. Alvaro J. 26. Aznar J. 31. Coulibaly I. (G) 38. Cuellar M. 1. de Luis M. (G) 2. Diez S. 7. Koke 35. Lis A. 6. Munoz D. 32. Pan Abajo P. 18. Seidu T. 30. Vega A.	13. Carrasco S. (G) 18. Castillo N. 16. Chino 7. Gallego F. 2. Gomez D. 22. Lozano O. 5. Marquez D. 24. Perez A. 14. Polo C. 15. Senhadji Y.
Coaches
Torres F.	Herrero M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', Kamate I. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Kamate I. ⚽, Domenech M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rodriguez D. ↓, Polo C. ↑,
57', Kamate I. (Penalty Awarded),
62', 1 - 1, Adri P. (Penalty Awarded),
63', Kamate I. ↓, Koke ↑,
63', Sanhaji M. 🟨,
77', Sola A. ↓, Diez S. ↑,
77', Alcaniz E. ↓, Alvaro J. ↑,
78', Adri P. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
78', Gil J. 🟥,
83', Moyano J. 🟨,
88', Polo C. 🟨,
89', Keita M. ↓, Lozano O. ↑,
89', Martos M. ↓, Chino ↑,
90', Koke 🟨,
90+2', Castillo J. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
90+2', Cubo M. ↓, Vega A. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 14th and 5th in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs).

Atlético Madrid B is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Jaén have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Atlético Madrid B may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Atlético Madrid B is considered the favorite to take the win.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Jaen	9	4	4	1	13:9	4	16
14	Atl. Madrid B	9	2	4	3	17:15	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Real Jaén - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 29.73%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.10.26	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Atlético Madrid B	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Atlético Madrid B - Zaragoza	4:4 ✺
02.10.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Madrid B	3:2 ✺
25.09.26	Atlético Madrid B - Villarreal B	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	Huesca - Atlético Madrid B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTLLT
- Real Jaén
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.10.26	Real Jaén - Rayo Majadahonda	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	Real Jaén - Villarreal B	3:3 ✺
03.10.26	Hércules - Real Jaén	0:0 ✺
27.09.26	Antequera - Real Jaén	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Real Jaén - Ibiza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTTLW

Atlético Madrid B - Real Jaén: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide