Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria (Jaén) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	18:15	Footballclub


	Real Jaén		Rayo Majadahonda

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.4
	1.98	3.20	3.30
	2.08	3.15	3.3
	2.03	3.17	3.51
	2.07	3.29	3.53	Watch
	1.99	3.1	3.4
	2.02	3.13	3.44
	2.07	3.2	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.88)	3.18 ↓ (3.29)	3.4 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Jaén
44.7%

Draw
28.6%

Rayo Majadahonda
26.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.3%

27.6%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

27.2%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Rayo Majadahonda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Majadahonda than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Real Jaén - Rayo Majadahonda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morillas J. (G) 21. Sanhaji M. 6. Alvarez J. 17. Moyano J. (C) 3. Serrano D. 11. Martos M. 10. Adri P. 23. Rodriguez D. 18. Castillo N. 19. Keita M. 14. Polo C.	13. Prieto M. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 4. Ramos Cruz D. (C) 20. Sotillos A. 23. Duran J. 6. del Pozo D. 18. Aguado T. 14. Yoshimura Y. 7. Calcada G. 21. Cambra J. 19. Gonzaga M.
Substitutes
8. Caballero A. 20. Cabello M. 13. Carrasco S. (G) 16. Chino 27. Fall S. 7. Gallego F. 2. Gomez D. 22. Lozano O. 5. Marquez D. 15. Senhadji Y.	16. Alvarez I. 8. Amaro A. 15. Celorio N. 1. Fuidias T. (G) 17. Mesa O. 22. Quintanilla R. 29. Silva S.
Coaches
Herrero M.	Fernandez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Keita M. 🟨,
27', del Pozo D. 🟨,
31', Cambra J. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Serrano D. ⚽, Keita M. (A),
43', Yoshimura Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Sanhaji M. 🟨,
59', Alvarez J. 🟨,
60', Rodriguez D. ↓, Cabello M. ↑,
60', Castillo N. ↓, Gomez D. ↑,
60', Adri P. ↓, Caballero A. ↑,
66', del Pozo D. ↓, Amaro A. ↑,
71', Calcada G. ↓, Celorio N. ↑,
72', Polo C. ↓, Gallego F. ↑,
77', Yoshimura Y. ↓, Mesa O. ↑,
77', Gallardo D. ↓, Alvarez I. ↑,
78', Sotillos A. ↓, Quintanilla R. ↑,
85', Martos M. ↓, Marquez D. ↑,
90+2', Amaro A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 8th and 19th in the Relegation).

In recent outings, Jaén has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Rayo Majadahonda has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Jaén could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Jaén holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Jaen	9	4	4	1	13:9	4	16
16	Rayo Majadahonda	9	2	1	6	7:10	-3	7

Last Results with these Odds

Rayo Majadahonda - the odds 3.79 are the expected chance of winning is 24.01%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Jaén
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.10.26	Real Jaén - Villarreal B	3:3 ✺
03.10.26	Hércules - Real Jaén	0:0 ✺
27.09.26	Antequera - Real Jaén	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Real Jaén - Ibiza	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Teruel - Real Jaén	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TTLWW
- CF Rayo Majadahonda
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.10.26	Rayo Majadahonda - Real Murcia	0:1 ✺
04.10.26	Algeciras - Rayo Majadahonda	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	CE Europa - Rayo Majadahonda	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Rayo Majadahonda - Teruel	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Rayo Majadahonda - Cartagena	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLWT

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