Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 7

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria (Jaén) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Campos J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	18:45	Footballclub


	Real Jaén		Villarreal B

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.20	2.70
	2.30	3.10	2.70
	2.32	3.15	2.80
	2.45	3.30	2.91
	2.86	3.29	2.4	Watch
	2.40	3.05	2.85
	2.40	2.97	2.74
	2.32	3.20	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.43)	3.16 ↓ (3.26)	2.74 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Jaén
37.7%

Draw
28.9%

Villarreal B
33.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.2%

28.5%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

29.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Villarreal B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal B than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Real Jaén - Villarreal B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morillas J. (G) 21. Sanhaji M. 6. Alvarez J. 4. Pol J. 3. Serrano D. 18. Castillo N. 8. Caballero A. 10. Adri P. 11. Martos M. (C) 9. Siverio M. 19. Keita M.	1. Kinareykin Y. (G) 2. Encuentra J. 5. Garcia A. 4. Pujol E. 3. Ortiz E. (C) 6. Pascual P. 8. Tidiane Thiam C. 10. Viveros F. 9. Garcia A. 19. Barry M. 22. Fofana D.
Substitutes
20. Cabello M. 13. Carrasco S. (G) 16. Chino 27. Fall S. 7. Gallego F. 2. Gomez D. 22. Lozano O. 5. Marquez D. 17. Moyano J. 14. Polo C. 23. Rodriguez D. 15. Senhadji Y.	24. Arguigue Safsati A. 20. Barattucci N. 23. Diallo M. 14. Fores A. 18. Gomez V. 21. Keita M. 13. Quevedo A. (G) 12. Sanchez N. 16. Valls A.
Coaches
Herrero M.	Albelda D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Garcia A. ⚽, Barry M. (A),
14', 1 - 1, Siverio M. (Penalty Awarded),
42', Pujol E. 🟨,
45+1', Caballero A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Caballero A. ↓, Moyano J. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Garcia A. ⚽, Encuentra J. (A),
65', Viveros F. 🟨,
67', Adri P. ↓, Lozano O. ↑,
67', Castillo N. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
69', Barry M. ↓, Sanchez N. ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Keita M. ⚽,
75', Encuentra J. ↓, Fores A. ↑,
75', Viveros F. ↓, Arguigue Safsati A. ↑,
75', Fofana D. ↓, Barattucci N. ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Arguigue Safsati A. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
84', Arguigue Safsati A. 🟨,
85', Pascual P. ↓, Valls A. ↑,
85', Alvarez J. ↓, Polo C. ↑,
85', Martos M. ↓, Gallego F. ↑,
90', Tidiane Thiam C. 🟨,
90+1', Garcia A. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 3, Siverio M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+6', Pol J. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 6th and 2nd in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs).

Jaén has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Villarreal B is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Villarreal B could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Villarreal B	9	6	2	1	21:10	11	20
3	Jaen	9	4	4	1	13:9	4	16

Last Results with these Odds

Villarreal B - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.37%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Jaén
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.10.26	Hércules - Real Jaén	0:0 ✺
27.09.26	Antequera - Real Jaén	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Real Jaén - Ibiza	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Teruel - Real Jaén	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Real Jaén - Huesca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLWWT
- Villarreal B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
04.10.26	Villarreal B - Ibiza	0:1 ✺
25.09.26	Atlético Madrid B - Villarreal B	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	Villarreal B - Antequera	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Huesca - Villarreal B	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Villarreal B - Algeciras	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWTWW

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