Match Info

Paulista A2 - First stage - Round 14

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	Atlético Monte Azul		Água Santa

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.05	2.22	Watch
	2.95	3.15	2.44
	2.93	2.99	2.4	Watch
	2.88	2.9	2.38
	2.92	3.23	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.16)	3.06 ↑ (3)	2.37 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Monte Azul
31.3%

Draw
29.9%

Água Santa
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

30.5%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

29.3%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Monte Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Monte Azul than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Atlético Monte Azul - Água Santa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+6', 0 - 1, Cristiano ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Second stage: )).

Água Santa is Qualified for Paulista A2 (Second stage )

Monte Azul has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Água Santa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Água Santa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Água Santa could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Monte Azul won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Monte Azul won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Monte Azul
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
25.02.26	Atlético Monte Azul - CA Juventus	1:3 ✺
22.02.26	Ferroviária - Atlético Monte Azul	1:0 ✺
18.02.26	Atlético Monte Azul - Osasco Sporting	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Taubaté - Atlético Monte Azul	3:3 ✺
11.02.26	Grêmio Prudente - Atlético Monte Azul	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTTT
- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
25.02.26	Água Santa - Grêmio Prudente	4:3 ✺
21.02.26	Água Santa - Taubaté	2:3 ✺
18.02.26	Ituano - Água Santa	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	São José-SP - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
11.02.26	Água Santa - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
03.05.21	Atlético Monte Azul - Água Santa	1:2

Atlético Monte Azul - Água Santa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide