Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
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Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Atlético Nacional		Internacional RS

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.8	Watch
	2.3	3.2	3
	2	3.5	3.6	Watch
	2.02	3.49	3.91
	2	3.47	3.81
	2.3	3.1	3	Watch
	1.97	3.53	3.83	Watch
	2	3.5	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.43)	3.41 ↑ (3.28)	3.57 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
45.8%

Draw
27.7%

Internacional RS
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

28.9%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

30.2%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Nacional's performance.

Internacional RS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Internacional RS might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Internacional RS than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Atlético Nacional - Internacional RS Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Internacional will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Nacional: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Internacional (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Internacional (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 23. Arias J. J. 16. Tesillo W. 13. Candido C. 8. Uribe M. 21. Campuzano J. 18. Hinestroza M. 10. Cardona E. 11. Arce B. 19. Viveros K.	24. Anthoni (G) 4. Vitao 5. Fernando 41. Victor Gabriel 35. Aguirre B. 8. Bruno Henrique 29. Thiago Maia 26. Bernabei A. 10. Alan Patrick (C) 13. Valencia E. 21. Wesley
Substitutes
3. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 27. Asprilla D. 15. Castillo H. (G) 20. Castro J. 28. Garcia S. 7. Gil Mosquera F. A. 32. Guzman S. 9. Morelos A. 30. Parra Atehortua K. 26. Rivero E. 17. Salazar A. 29. Sarmiento A.	17. Bruno Tabata 33. Diego Rosa 47. Gustavo Prado 12. Ivan (G) 18. Juninho 45. Lucca 23. Nathan 2. Ramon 49. Ricardo Mathias 3. Rogel A. 11. Romero O. 16. Ronaldo
Coaches
Gandolfi J.	Roger Machado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Vitao 🟨,
37', Valencia E. ↓, Lucca ↑,
39', 1 - 0, Viveros K. ⚽, Candido C. (A),
45+3', Tesillo W. 🟨,
45+3', Lucca 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Bruno Henrique ↓, Bruno Tabata ↑,
51', Thiago Maia 🟨,
55', 2 - 0, Arce B. ⚽, Hinestroza M. (A),
67', Arce B. 🟨,
73', Roman A. 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, Alan Patrick (Pen),
82', Arce B. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
82', Uribe M. ↓, Rivero E. ↑,
83', Campuzano J. 🟨,
84', Alan Patrick 🟨,
84', Thiago Maia ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
84', Fernando ↓, Ricardo Mathias ↑,
87', Cardona E. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Viveros K. ⚽, Arias J. J. (A),
90+5', Viveros K. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Atlético Nacional: Zapata J. (Injury)

There will not play in Internacional: Borre R. (Injury) Bruno Gomes (Knee Injury) Drummond L. (Knee Injury) Mercado G. (Knee Injury) Rochet S. (Broken Hand) Vitinho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Internacional: Carbonero J. (Injury) Diego Rosa (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Atlético Nacional won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
04.05.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	1:1 ✺
29.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Deportivo Pasto	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.25	Bahia - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
20.04.25	Deportivo Cali - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
16.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Boyacá Chicó	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWLLW
- Internacional RS
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Corinthians - Internacional RS	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Internacional RS - Maracanã	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Internacional RS - Juventude	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Internacional RS - Nacional Montevideo	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	Internacional RS - Atlético Nacional	3:0

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