Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: de Vivar M. D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Peru	ESPN
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	Bahia		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.6	5	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.2
	1.75	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.77	3.69	4.95
	1.77	3.66	4.73
	1.85	3.3	4	Watch
	1.74	3.59	4.98	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.75)	3.56 ↓ (3.74)	4.67 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
53.2%

Draw
26.6%

Atlético Nacional
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

25.3%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

28.3%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bahia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	26.7%	6.7%

Bahia - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Atlético Nacional (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Marcos Felipe (G) 2. Gilberto 21. Ramos S. 33. David Duarte 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 8. Cauly 9. Rodriguez L. 16. Erick Pulga	1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 23. Arias J. J. 16. Tesillo W. 13. Candido C. 21. Campuzano J. 26. Rivero E. 27. Asprilla D. 8. Uribe M. 29. Sarmiento A. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
7. Ademir 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 14. Erick 83. Fred Lippert 25. Iago Borduchi 37. Kayky 26. Nicolas Acevedo 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 52. Ruan Pablo 77. Tiago 12. Willian Jose	11. Arce B. 10. Cardona E. 15. Castillo H. (G) 20. Castro J. 28. Garcia S. 7. Gil Mosquera F. A. 32. Guzman S. 25. Marquinez L. (G) 30. Parra Atehortua K. 17. Salazar A. 5. Toscano Bassa K. D.
Coaches
Mucke R.	Gandolfi J.

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Atlético Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bahia is a favorite.

There will not play in Bahia: Gabriel Xavier (Calf Injury) Kanu (Injury) Michel Araujo (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Atlético Nacional: Gil Mosquera F. A. (Inactive) Guzman S. (Inactive) Hinestroza M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Bahia: Arias S. (Inactive) Ronaldo Strada (Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético Nacional: Zapata J. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Bahia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Bahia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
17.04.25	Cruzeiro - Bahia	3:0 ✺
13.04.25	Bahia - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Santos - Bahia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLTWT
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
20.04.25	Deportivo Cali - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
16.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Boyacá Chicó	4:1 ✺
13.04.25	Millonarios - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	Internacional RS - Atlético Nacional	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
24.10.13	Bahia - Atlético Nacional	1:1 penalties
26.09.13	Atlético Nacional - Bahia	1:0

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