Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 22 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	ESPN
Germany	Sportdigital+
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 5 South, ESPN South
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	Internacional RS		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.2	7.5	Watch
	1.42	4.3	8	Watch
	1.41	4.51	9.36
	1.45	4.22	8.24	Watch
	1.36	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.46	4.24	7.58	Watch
	1.42	4.3	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.37)	4.3 ↓ (4.57)	8.17 ↓ (9.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Internacional RS
66.5%

Draw
22%

Nacional Montevideo
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

20.7%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.1%

19.6%

9.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Internacional RS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Internacional RS than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Internacional RS, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Internacional RS - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Internacional will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Internacional (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Nacional (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Internacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Anthoni (G) 35. Aguirre B. 41. Victor Gabriel 4. Vitao 26. Bernabei A. 8. Bruno Henrique 5. Fernando 34. Gabriel Carvalho 10. Alan Patrick (C) 21. Wesley 13. Valencia E.	12. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 15. Calione P. 4. Coates S. (C) 29. Millan J. 11. Baez Corradi G. 16. Villalba Jaume L. M. 6. Boggio L. 8. Oliva C. 18. Recoba J. 7. Lopez N.
Substitutes
19. Borre R. 17. Bruno Tabata 47. Gustavo Prado 12. Ivan (G) 18. Juninho 23. Nathan 2. Ramon 3. Rogel A. 11. Romero O. 16. Ronaldo 29. Thiago Maia 28. Vitinho	26. Arady B. 17. Eduardo Vargas 76. Herazo D. 19. Morales L. 80. Otero R. 10. Pereyra M. 9. Petit G. 2. Ramos N. 77. Rodriguez N. 5. Rodriguez Y. 27. Romero D. 25. Suarez I. (G)
Coaches
Roger Machado	Peirano P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Millan J. ⚽, Oliva C. (A),
10', 0 - 2, Boggio L. ⚽, Villalba Jaume L. M. (A),
28', Valencia E. 🟨,
43', 0 - 3, Coates S. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 3, Alan Patrick (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gabriel Carvalho ↓, Borre R. ↑,
48', Borre R. 🟨,
61', Bruno Henrique ↓, Romero O. ↑,
61', Aguirre B. ↓, Vitinho ↑,
61', Recoba J. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
61', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Eduardo Vargas ↑,
64', Wesley 🟨,
66', Victor Gabriel 🟨,
67', 2 - 3, Bernabei A. ⚽, Romero O. (A),
71', Ancheta E. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
73', 3 - 3, Fernando ⚽, Alan Patrick (A),
83', Wesley ↓, Ramon ↑,
83', Bernabei A. ↓, Nathan ↑,
84', Lopez N. ↓, Herazo D. ↑,
84', Oliva C. ↓, Morales L. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Internacional is certain favorite.

There will not play in Internacional: Bruno Gomes (Knee Injury) Carbonero J. (Injury) Drummond L. (Knee Injury) Mercado G. (Knee Injury) Rochet S. (Broken Hand)

There will not play in Nacional: Carneiro G. (Knee Injury) Mereles E. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Internacional won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Internacional won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Internacional RS
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Internacional RS - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Fortaleza - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	Internacional RS - Atlético Nacional	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Internacional RS - Cruzeiro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLTWW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Miramar Misiones - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
13.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.04.25	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
07.06.23	Nacional Montevideo - Internacional RS	1:1
03.05.23	Internacional RS - Nacional Montevideo	2:2

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