Match Info

MLS

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	TSN 4, TSN 5
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Atlanta United		Chicago Fire

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.9	2.75	Watch
	2.2	3.8	2.8
	2.28	3.95	2.78	Watch
	2.36	4.04	2.82
				Watch
	2.3	3.7	2.75
	2.33	3.99	2.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.15)	3.9 ↑ (3.77)	2.78 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlanta United
41.5%

Draw
24.4%

Chicago Fire
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

25.4%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

26%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlanta United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Chicago Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlanta United than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	21.4%	42.9%

Atlanta United - Chicago Fire Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Atlanta will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Chicago will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chicago: 17% – 68.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Chicago (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Chicago (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Atlanta (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chicago Fire will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlanta (votes: 2 - 25%). Chicago (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guzan B. (G) 11. Lennon B. 21. Morales E. 44. Abram L. 18. Amador P. 59. Miranchuk Al. 8. Muyumba T. 99. Slisz B. 9. Lobjanidze S. 19. Latte Lath E. 10. Almiron M.	1. Brady C. (G) 24. Dean J. 3. Elliott J. 5. Rogers S. 15. Gutman A. 42. D'Avilla D. 17. Gutierrez B. 35. Oregel S. 11. Zinckernagel P. 9. Cuypers H. 19. Bamba J.
Substitutes
20. Brennan L. 24. Cobb N. 47. Edwards M. 2. Hernandez R. 42. Hibbert J. (G) 43. Klich M. 28. Reilly W. 14. Thiare J. 30. Togashi C.	23. Acosta K. 12. Barlow T. 2. Barroso L. 25. Gal J. (G) 26. Glasgow O. 34. Gonzalez O. 7. Haile-Selassie M. 6. Kouame R. 22. Pineda M.
Coaches
Deila R.	Berhalter G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Zinckernagel P. ⚽,
28', Oregel S. 🟨,
31', Amador P. 🟨,
35', D'Avilla D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
56', 1 - 1, Miranchuk Al. ⚽, Almiron M. (A), Slisz B. (A2)
67', Oregel S. ↓, Kouame R. ↑,
67', Bamba J. ↓, Haile-Selassie M. ↑,
71', Latte Lath E. ↓, Thiare J. ↑,
71', Lobjanidze S. ↓, Brennan L. ↑,
71', Muyumba T. ↓, Reilly W. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Haile-Selassie M. ⚽, Gutman A. (A), Zinckernagel P. (A2)
81', D'Avilla D. ↓, Pineda M. ↑,
83', Slisz B. 🟨,
87', Lennon B. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
87', Abram L. ↓, Togashi C. ↑,
89', Zinckernagel P. ↓, Barroso L. ↑,
89', Cuypers H. ↓, Barlow T. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 2, Reilly W. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 12 and 10)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlanta won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Chicago may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atlanta has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Atlanta: Cohen J. (Forearm injury) Fortune A. (Foot Injury) Williams D. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Chicago: Cupps C. (Leg Injury) Mueller C. (Personal Reasons) Poreba D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atlanta: Gregersen S. (Thigh Injury) Guzan B. (Face Injury)

There are questionable in Chicago: Reynolds J. (Head Injury) Teran C. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Atlanta won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:23. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlanta won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:5. (average 2.5:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlanta United
MLS
12.07.25	Toronto FC - Atlanta United	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	DC United - Atlanta United	0:0 ✺
25.06.25	Columbus Crew - Atlanta United	3:1 ✺
12.06.25	New York City - Atlanta United	4:0 ✺
31.05.25	New York Red Bulls - Atlanta United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTLLL
- Chicago Fire
MLS
12.07.25	Chicago Fire - San Diego	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
08.07.25	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	3:1 ET ✺
MLS
05.07.25	Cincinnati - Chicago Fire	2:1 ✺
28.06.25	Chicago Fire - Charlotte	3:2 ✺
25.06.25	Chicago Fire - Philadelphia Union	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
10.05.25	Chicago Fire - Atlanta United	2:1
27.04.24	Chicago Fire - Atlanta United	0:0
31.03.24	Atlanta United - Chicago Fire	3:0
20.05.23	Chicago Fire - Atlanta United	3:3
23.04.23	Atlanta United - Chicago Fire	2:1
30.07.22	Chicago Fire - Atlanta United	0:0
07.05.22	Atlanta United - Chicago Fire	4:1

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