Match Info

MLS

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)

Referee: Da Silva A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC
World	Apple TV International


	Atlanta United		New York City

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.6	2.65	Watch
	2.45	3.50	2.60
	2.45	3.6	2.65
	2.49	3.72	2.75
	2.49	3.69	2.62	Watch
	2.6	3.6	2.55
	2.51	3.67	2.77	Watch
	2.43	3.6	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.31)	3.62 ↑ (3.62)	2.66 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlanta United
38.2%

Draw
26.1%

New York City
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

25.8%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

24.7%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlanta United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlanta United than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	50%	37.5%

Atlanta United - New York City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Atlanta will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). NY City will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. NY City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +1 - NY City (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. NY City (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hoyos L. (C) 55. Jacob T. 47. Edwards M. 4. Mihaj E. 3. Baez E. 48. Sanchez C. 14. Amaro M. 8. Muyumba T. 11. Giuliano Galoppo 36. Embolo B. 20. Brennan L.	30. Romero T. (G) 34. Raul Gustavo 13. Thiago Martins (C) 6. Sands J. 2. Cavallo N. 8. Perea A. 32. Shore J. 26. Ojeda A. 7. Mercau N. 17. Wolf H. 9. Traore B.
Substitutes
7. Alzate S. 44. Chica D. 70. Dunbar C. 35. Fortune A. 16. Gill A. 42. Hibbert J. (G) 28. Reilly W. 19. Sergio Santos 30. Togashi C.	27. Flax C. 88. Jones M. 20. Luighi 16. Martinez A. 3. Miazga M. 23. Murray M. 22. O'Toole K. 15. Pierre K. 18. Ranjitsingh G. (G)
Coaches
Martino G.	Jansen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Edwards M. (Own goal),
10', 1 - 1, Giuliano Galoppo ⚽, Jacob T. (A),
43', Brennan L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Jacob T. ↓, Chica D. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Perea A. ⚽, Ojeda A. (A),
67', Traore B. ↓, Luighi ↑,
67', Sanchez C. ↓, Fortune A. ↑,
68', Martino G. 🟨,
74', 2 - 2, Fortune A. ⚽, Muyumba T. (A),
80', Cavallo N. ↓, O'Toole K. ↑,
86', Giuliano Galoppo ↓, Alzate S. ↑,
86', Muyumba T. ↓, Dunbar C. ↑,
90+5', Raul Gustavo 🟨,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 14th and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlanta won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

NY City could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Atlanta: Almiron M. (International duty) Alonso J. (International duty) Diaz P. (International duty) Miranchuk Al. (International duty) Picault F. (International duty).

Confirmed absences for NY City: Baiera D. (Knee Injury) Farnos A. (Injury) Freese M. (International duty) Gray T. (International duty) Ilenic M. (International duty) Moralez M. (Knee Injury) O'Neill A. (International duty).

Doubtful / questionable for Atlanta: Alzate S. (Illness) Jacob T. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for NY City: Parks K. (Injury) Talles Magno (Muscle Injury) Trewin K. (Ankle Injury).

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta has recorded 5 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:34 (averaging 1.5:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlanta against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with 20:15 goals (averaging 2.2:1.7 per game).

Outrights of MLS for now

New York City: 1.05%

Last Results with these Odds

New York City - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 33.95%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlanta United
MLS
19.09.26	Portland Timbers - Atlanta United	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	DC United - Atlanta United	0:0 ✺
09.09.26	Atlanta United - Orlando City	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Inter Miami - Atlanta United	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Atlanta United - Charlotte	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WTLTL
- New York City FC
MLS
18.09.26	New York City - New York Red Bulls	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Real Salt Lake - New York City	0:2 ✺
09.09.26	New York City - New England Revolution	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	New York City - Nashville SC	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Toronto FC - New York City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

MLS
12.06.25	New York City - Atlanta United	4:0
29.03.25	Atlanta United - New York City	4:3
17.07.24	Atlanta United - New York City	2:2
06.04.24	New York City - Atlanta United	1:1
21.06.23	Atlanta United - New York City	2:2
08.04.23	New York City - Atlanta United	1:1
09.10.22	Atlanta United - New York City	1:2

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