Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
World	VIX App


	Atlas		Club América

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.1	1.62	Watch
	4.4	3.75	1.72
	4.25	3.7	1.75	Watch
	5.45	4.09	1.66
	4	3.4	1.75	Watch
	5.44	4.08	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.8 ↑ (4.48)	3.85 ↑ (3.75)	1.68 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlas
19.6%

Draw
24.4%

Club América
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

24.9%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

24.2%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Club América has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club América than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.8%	11.8%	76.5%

Atlas - Club América Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Atlas will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). América will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for América: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Club América will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Vargas C. (G) 3. Gustavo Ferrareis 13. Aguirre G. 5. Matheus Doria 4. Mora A. 17. Lozano J. 27. Rios De Alba V. H. 26. Rocha A. 11. Gonzalez D. 10. del Prete G. 32. Djurdjevic U.	1. Malagon L. (G) 4. Caceres S. 29. Juarez R. 26. Borja C. 34. Espinoza D. 3. Reyes I. 10. Zendejas A. 28. Sanchez E. 8. Fidalgo A. 7. Rodriguez B. 27. Aguirre R.
Substitutes
7. Coccaro M. 8. Garcia M. E. 58. Gonzalez A. 199. Hernandez S. 23. Orrantia C. 44. Pier R. 16. Ramirez A. 21. Robles C. 22. Sanchez A. (G) 192. Serrato J.	5. Alvarez K. 13. Cervantes A. 30. Cota R. (G) 11. Davila V. 6. dos Santos J. 20. Gutierrez Torres A. H. 31. Lichnovsky I. 97. Saint-Maximin A. 12. Violante I. 19. Zuniga J.
Coaches
Cocca D.	Jardine A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', Aguirre G. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Rodriguez B. (Pen),
32', Espinoza D. 🟨,
43', Borja C. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, del Prete G. ⚽, Gonzalez D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
49', 2 - 1, Gonzalez D. ⚽, Lozano J. (A),
62', Rodriguez B. ↓, Saint-Maximin A. ↑,
62', Aguirre R. ↓, Zuniga J. ↑,
62', Espinoza D. ↓, Alvarez K. ↑,
63', Rocha A. 🟨,
74', 2 - 2, Fidalgo A. ⚽, Alvarez K. (A),
77', Zendejas A. 🟨,
78', del Prete G. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
81', Zendejas A. ↓, Violante I. ↑,
82', Rocha A. 🟨,
87', Juarez R. ↓, Davila V. ↑,
89', 2 - 3, Saint-Maximin A. ⚽, Violante I. (A),
90+3', Gustavo Ferrareis ↓, Coccaro M. ↑,
90+4', Violante I. 🟨,
90+6', Davila V. (Pen),
90+7', 2 - 4, Davila V. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 0.

Atlas is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

América is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Atlas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atlas has had a series of away games.

Recently, América has had a series of home games.

In this match, América is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Atlas: Aguirre E. (Muscle Injury) Cruz C. (Knee Injury) Manotas M. (Knee Injury) Rodriguez J. (Injury) Zaldivar E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atlas: Ramirez P. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in América: Martin H. (Muscle Injury) Naveda S. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 14:34. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlas won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 8:19. (average 0.8:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Club América - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.19%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
17.08.25	Querétaro - Atlas	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Atlas - Pachuca	0:3 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Atlanta United - Atlas	4:1 ✺
02.08.25	Orlando City - Atlas	3:1 ✺
30.07.25	Inter Miami - Atlas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL
- Club América
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.25	Tigres UANL - Club América	1:3 ✺
09.08.25	Club América - Querétaro	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Club América - Portland Timbers	2:1 penalties ✺
02.08.25	Club América - Minnesota United	4:3 penalties ✺
30.07.25	Club América - Real Salt Lake	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
15.03.25	Atlas - Club América	1:3
17.09.24	Club América - Atlas	3:0
CONCACAF League Cup
09.08.24	Club América - Atlas	2:1
Mexican Liga MX
02.03.24	Atlas - Club América	1:5
20.08.23	Club América - Atlas	1:1
25.02.23	Atlas - Club América	2:2
02.07.22	Club América - Atlas	0:0

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