Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet
Mexico	Canal 5, TUDN, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Atlas		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.50	2.10	Watch
	3.30	3.40	2.05
	3.15	3.35	2.14	Watch
	3.46	3.51	2.17
	3.51	3.5	2.07
	3.40	3.45	2.14
	3.48	3.56	2.12	Watch
	3.20	3.45	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (3.09)	3.47 ↓ (3.48)	2.12 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlas
28.2%

Draw
27.2%

Chivas Guadalajara
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

26.7%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

25.9%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	16.7%	83.3%

Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Users Predictions: Chivas Guadalajara will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Vargas C. (C) 19. Frias A. 44. Sanchez J. 16. Valenzuela M. 3. Sanchez J. 18. Montiel E. 15. Ramirez P. 8. Mmaee R. 20. Zenon K. 10. Esteves L. 9. Monzon F.	1. Rangel R. (G) 23. Aguirre D. 16. Rey L. 3. Campillo Del Campo D. 37. Ledezma R. 28. Gonzalez F. (C) 11. Gutierrez B. 182. Calderon L. 25. Alvarado R. 17. Marin R. 9. Sepulveda A.
Substitutes
13. Aguirre G. 28. Capasso M. 58. Gonzalez A. 23. Hernandez S. 203. Martin J. 27. Rios De Alba V. H. 26. Rocha A. 5. Rodriguez J. 22. Sanchez A. (G) 6. Zaldivar E.	10. Alvarez E. 14. Camberos H. 33. Carrillo J. 19. Castaneda K. 2. Castillo J. 192. Hernandez C. 57. Hernandez J. 59. Inda S. 30. Sandoval S. 13. Whalley O. (G)
Coaches
Crespo H.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Sanchez J. 🟨,
30', Ledezma R. 🟨,
41', Aguirre D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Campillo Del Campo D. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Zenon K. ⚽, Ramirez P. (A),
63', Monzon F. 🟨,
65', Ramirez P. ↓, Zaldivar E. ↑,
66', Calderon L. ↓, Castaneda K. ↑,
66', Marin R. ↓, Camberos H. ↑,
66', Ledezma R. ↓, Sandoval S. ↑,
76', Sepulveda A. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Montiel E. ↓, Rocha A. ↑,
84', Castaneda K. 🟨,
86', 1 - 1, Sepulveda A. ⚽, Gutierrez B. (A),
87', Mmaee R. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
89', Sandoval S. 🟨,
90+1', Alvarado R. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,
90+8', Castaneda K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 3rd in the Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 0.

Atlas has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Guadalajara shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Atlas could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Guadalajara holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Atlas: Duk (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Guadalajara: Gonzalez B. (Muscle Injury) Govea O. (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for Atlas: Capasso M. (Injury) Cruz C. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Guadalajara: Castillo J. (Muscle Injury) Gomez M. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Atlas has recorded 5 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:25 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlas against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with 8:10 goals (averaging 0.8:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
6	Atlas	11	5	3	3	17:18	-1	18

Last Results with these Odds

Chivas Guadalajara - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.09%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
25.09.26	Tijuana - Atlas	2:3 ✺
19.09.26	Atlas - UNAM	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Toluca - Atlas	5:2 ✺
05.09.26	Atlas - Atlante	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Atlas - Querétaro	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTLTL
- Chivas Guadalajara
Club Friendly
04.10.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Club América	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
26.09.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Club América - Chivas Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético San Luis - Chivas Guadalajara	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.03.26	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	0:1
Mexican Liga MX
07.03.26	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2
Club Friendly
03.01.26	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0
Mexican Liga MX
25.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Atlas	4:1
19.04.25	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1
Club Friendly
27.12.24	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0
Mexican Liga MX
21.11.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Atlas	1:2

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